2013 Markets outlook DowJones

2013 Markets outlook DowJones

ferrara outlook013

WILL MARKET RECOVER FOR END FY 2013

CLICK ON ABOVE
WILL THE MARKETS RECOVER 2013
approaching new high quarter 3 2013

End FY 2013 with a scream???

The Gold Report: As you noted in your last interview with The Gold Report in February, Goldman Sachs was predicting that gold would to go down to $1,200/ounce ($1,200/oz) in several years, and now “Dr. Doom,” Nouriel Roubini, says it’s going to $1,000/oz. What’s your view?

Chen Lin: In the near term, I think gold is being controlled by the paper market on Wall Street, which is unfortunate. However, I’m still bullish for the long run.


2012 2013
has been the top of cycle..
with the imminent correction still in mending
USA election done
smell of war in israel??
yet this market got to get a life
DOWJones chart analysis to be released

Trading Rules

Trading Rules
trading Rules - Be Aware SP and DOWJones are far to high - a correction of 20 % is pending any time,,Timing the USA election **** end of iron ore boom *** fall in big stocks favor the come back of pennyshares****

DOW JONES WATCH FORECASTS

SOON FINANCIAL 2013

Best Six Months for Stock Market Are Underway Says Hirsch

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, November is the beginning of the stock market's strongest six-month period. The "Best Six Months Switching Strategy" goes like this: Invest in the Dow and/or S&P 500 between November 1 and April 30 each year, then switch into safer fixed income assets in May.

"We found that most of the market's gains are made from November to April, whereas you either go down or are flat from May through October; hence the sell in May and go away [strategy]," says Jeff Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Historically, there's a soft period from May through October, as seen in STA's chart below.


"We like to buy in October and get ourselves sober, even though we didn't get our trigger this year because the market was vacillating quite a bit," says Hirsch. He uses a MACD indicator as a trigger for buy and sell moves. Using the MACD, the DJIA's Best Six Months rises to an average gain of 9.3% versus a loss of 1.2% during the Worst Six Months.

On average as seen in the chart below, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 7.5% during the Best Six Month period since 1950, versus 0.3% rise during the Worst 6 Months.

"Last year everyone was bearish — I was one of the lone bulls on the Street. I was really happy with our buy signal," says Hirsch. "This year I'm not so confident because the market technically is struggling against resistance; there are a lot of issues, there's a post-election year coming up, there's fiscal cliffs. So we're going in with tighter stops with our trades this year."

Needless to say, November is off to a very weak start with the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down over 4% month-to-date. Hirsch has already warned of risk in 2013 based on the election cycle and historical weakness when an incumbent president is re-elected.

"Again, we're at the sour spot of the four-year [presidential election] cycle," he admits. "We'll make our trades, but we'll be a lot more cautious and keep the stops a lot tighter instead of leaving it wide open here."

If this is as good as it gets, maybe that's a sound warning for the year ahead. How are you positioning for 2013? Let us know in the comment section below or visit us on Facebook!

More From Breakout:

Beware of Black Friday Trading: Hirsch

Anatomy of a Fragile Market: What to Make of the Selloff

TURBULENT CORRECTION AHEAD,, NEXT TO 10000
BE AWARE Q4 MARKET ASX CORRECTION JUST STARTED = DOW DID SIGNAL TOP = CORRECTION IN PROGRESS = WATCH COUNT THE WAVES
WATCH THE CROOKS DEALINGS ON PENNTSHARES,,,LOTS OF SCANDALS
DOW JONES WATCH FORECASTS
SPECIAL REPORT THE BULL ARE BACK 2012
Dow Jones managed to break our resistance from 11.600 and now it touched our next one from 12.750.
more upward moves as long as 11.600 holds the market.
For the moment the sentiment in the markets is significant positive so, as long as we don't see a break of our supports, we can keep our

USA ELECTION - USA ECONOMY - EURO CRISIS
MARKET CORRECTION IN PROGRESS...
WAITING NEXT SIGNALS FOR SUPPORT
******* END FINANCIAL YEAR 2012**************


STOCK ALERT
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux ... money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected'
~G. Soros

The biggest risk in life is not to have one.
Investment Watch Blog
Australia Penny Shares companies are managed by the worth CROOKS of the system,, most of it wheeling and dealings to clean the holders?? most of them are INsiders/ traders.. ACCOUNTANTS AND CORPORATES LAWYERS,, protected by ASIC
Shame on them >> TRADE WITH THEM >> DO NOT HOLD THEM>> i call them professionals criminals THEY ARE DESTROYING PEOPLE WEALTH
AS 4 November 2011 MARKETS SENTIMENTS BULLISH see updated forecasts chart... DOW TESTING 11400 support, Warning
*********************************************************
MARKET SIGNALS IN CORRECTION..WAITING FOR THE STORM TO SETTLE.. WATCHING SUPPORT FORMATIONS.. MARKET COULD RALLY BY YEAR END short term
TARGET DOW 10400 - SP500 900 long term

Milford Sound in New Zealand go the dragon
If you're looking to invest in penny stocks that aren't part of some "pump and dump" scam, then I've got something you'll be very interested in... sign in and request

STOCK ALERT TDX FLAG UP - STOCK TO WATCH

TAKE NOTE THAT THE mARKET SEEMS TO CONSOLIDATE FOR A TURN ??? bIOTECHS SEEMS TO WARM UP??
accumulation on the penny shares,, be aware of consolidation

our chart updates support 1

our chart updates support 1

dow new chart formation warning

dow new chart formation warning
very important level to watch.. be aware of a dip

BEWARE OF CORPORATE CON MAN AT WORK

Dowjones first support 11900,, on the test *** 12500 ** median line channel broken
elliott wave blog

THE ART OF STEALING FROM SHARE HOLDERS
As a publicly listed company we are governed by the ASX Listing Rules and the Corporations Act and as you would appreciate, there are likely to be some matters that are in the process of being finalised that may be market sensitive. In such circumstances it would not be permissible to make disclosures to you until those matters are concluded and announced to the market,, the law protect ASIC and ASX
just playing with your money
KEEP IN MIND 90 % CORPORATE AUSTRALIA ARE CRIMINAL CROOKS ALONG WITH CORPORATE LAWS
link to ART OF STOCKS MANIPULATIONS
Quote of the day: note that in this market company directors keep very low profiles?? 6 months ago they were flooding the market machine with intentions??
signs of the time?
Dowjones future forecast

ASX TAX SELLING ending soon Watch the bounce

well that a hard one ,, but get ready in case
we may have a surge?
technical speculator page
VIX reverse sharpely
TAX adjustements done??.Happy New Year?
2012 could be a slow start /pending DowJones correction?
the words are Correction.. recession ... and fears of Depression
MOST DIRECTORS ARE ROBBERS ON ASX
Dowjones in correction mode.>> next support?? correction = recession = depression ?? 3 support scenario possible?
Astute accounting taking place
link to cycles theory
WARNING SIGNALS GIVEN ON THE RISING FLAG (3 months periode)
Quote of the moment??
Buying time is upon us.... Everone is getting more and more fearful which leads me to think we are getting closer to this downturns bottom. I'll be buying more as funds free up.
USA DEBTS CEILING DEBATE? 2 august 2011
HOW WILL DOWJONES REACT????

Saturday, January 18, 2014

US market get ready for a bubble

Excerpted from the December 2013 issue of Robert Prechter's The Elliott Wave Theorist.

A “Melt-Up”?

The idea that the stock market will end its rally with a near-vertical advance is appearing in articles, interviews, newsletters, web posts and even emails to EWI. It is especially popular among super-bears who have long recognized that the market is in a bubble.
The problem with this idea is that the Dow and S&P have never blown off. The stock market as a whole has never accelerated upward at a market top. It often accelerates off bottoms, and it always accelerates in the center of a third wave; but it has always lost momentum in a fifth wave relative to the third wave. Predictions for a blow-off defy history.
Commodities are the exception, as Frost and I pointed out in 1978 in Elliott Wave Principle (see text, p.173). In fifth waves of Primary and higher degree, commodities often accelerate upward before reversing. Recent examples include oil in 2008 and silver in 2011. The reason for the difference is that commodities peak on fear, whereas stocks peak on complacency.
Some people are arguing that the stock market has become “commoditized,” and that’s why it’s about to go into a parabolic rise. While we cannot say such an event is outright impossible, it’s never happened. One thing that does happen repeatedly in the stock market is for investors to raise their upside forecasts dramatically at a top. In 1999-2000, at the market’s true peak, books came out calling for Dow 36,000, Dow 40,000 and Dow 100,000. Today’s calls for a melt-up, then, are probably just capitulation to the bullish imperative, a rationalization of optimism. By this means, bears have switched from predicting a collapse to predicting soaring prices. In other words, “Sure, it’s a bubble; but it’s not topping now. In fact, it’s going to start going up faster!” These melt-up predictions are yet another indication that the market is close to a peak in the biggest B wave in recorded history.
This type of capitulation to the trend is different from panic, because it occurs at the opposite end of the psychological spectrum. There is no single word for it. Some people say things such as, “Investors are going to panic into stocks.” But the only people who can buy in panic are those who are short, and they typically constitute a very small percentage of investors. The stock market as a whole does not panic up. But it does occasionally experience a sudden crystallization of optimism. Usually it happens without much near-term price movement; it is the result of a long period of past price movement. We might call this event a cynap, the opposite of panic. When investors’ synapses snap, their opinions become aligned like particles in a magnet. That’s what we have today.
Meanwhile, the stock market has been losing upside momentum for seven months. This is how market tops have always formed, not with a rocket blast but with a subtly slowing ascent. Even in 1929 the market did not blow off; the rise that year was slower than the market’s rise in the second half of 1928. Is this time different? Well, so far it’s exactly the same in that people are saying it will be different.
One or two bears agree with us in being more vocal than ever about the risk in today’s market. Jean-Pierre Louvet of the SafeWealth Group reports on U.S. insolvency, bank woes, deflation and what "cash" means: http://209.10.98.87/SWR-SWMR_First_Quarter_2014.pdf. David Stockman knows it's a bubble and pulls no punches in saying how it will end: http://bastiat.mises.org/2013/11/david-stockman-its-20072008-all-over-again/

Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist delivers unique insights and analysis each month that will help you invest independently.

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