2013 Markets outlook DowJones

2013 Markets outlook DowJones

ferrara outlook013

WILL MARKET RECOVER FOR END FY 2013

CLICK ON ABOVE
WILL THE MARKETS RECOVER 2013
approaching new high quarter 3 2013

End FY 2013 with a scream???

The Gold Report: As you noted in your last interview with The Gold Report in February, Goldman Sachs was predicting that gold would to go down to $1,200/ounce ($1,200/oz) in several years, and now “Dr. Doom,” Nouriel Roubini, says it’s going to $1,000/oz. What’s your view?

Chen Lin: In the near term, I think gold is being controlled by the paper market on Wall Street, which is unfortunate. However, I’m still bullish for the long run.


2012 2013
has been the top of cycle..
with the imminent correction still in mending
USA election done
smell of war in israel??
yet this market got to get a life
DOWJones chart analysis to be released

Trading Rules

Trading Rules
trading Rules - Be Aware SP and DOWJones are far to high - a correction of 20 % is pending any time,,Timing the USA election **** end of iron ore boom *** fall in big stocks favor the come back of pennyshares****

DOW JONES WATCH FORECASTS

SOON FINANCIAL 2013

Best Six Months for Stock Market Are Underway Says Hirsch

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, November is the beginning of the stock market's strongest six-month period. The "Best Six Months Switching Strategy" goes like this: Invest in the Dow and/or S&P 500 between November 1 and April 30 each year, then switch into safer fixed income assets in May.

"We found that most of the market's gains are made from November to April, whereas you either go down or are flat from May through October; hence the sell in May and go away [strategy]," says Jeff Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Historically, there's a soft period from May through October, as seen in STA's chart below.


"We like to buy in October and get ourselves sober, even though we didn't get our trigger this year because the market was vacillating quite a bit," says Hirsch. He uses a MACD indicator as a trigger for buy and sell moves. Using the MACD, the DJIA's Best Six Months rises to an average gain of 9.3% versus a loss of 1.2% during the Worst Six Months.

On average as seen in the chart below, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 7.5% during the Best Six Month period since 1950, versus 0.3% rise during the Worst 6 Months.

"Last year everyone was bearish — I was one of the lone bulls on the Street. I was really happy with our buy signal," says Hirsch. "This year I'm not so confident because the market technically is struggling against resistance; there are a lot of issues, there's a post-election year coming up, there's fiscal cliffs. So we're going in with tighter stops with our trades this year."

Needless to say, November is off to a very weak start with the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down over 4% month-to-date. Hirsch has already warned of risk in 2013 based on the election cycle and historical weakness when an incumbent president is re-elected.

"Again, we're at the sour spot of the four-year [presidential election] cycle," he admits. "We'll make our trades, but we'll be a lot more cautious and keep the stops a lot tighter instead of leaving it wide open here."

If this is as good as it gets, maybe that's a sound warning for the year ahead. How are you positioning for 2013? Let us know in the comment section below or visit us on Facebook!

More From Breakout:

Beware of Black Friday Trading: Hirsch

Anatomy of a Fragile Market: What to Make of the Selloff

TURBULENT CORRECTION AHEAD,, NEXT TO 10000
BE AWARE Q4 MARKET ASX CORRECTION JUST STARTED = DOW DID SIGNAL TOP = CORRECTION IN PROGRESS = WATCH COUNT THE WAVES
WATCH THE CROOKS DEALINGS ON PENNTSHARES,,,LOTS OF SCANDALS
DOW JONES WATCH FORECASTS
SPECIAL REPORT THE BULL ARE BACK 2012
Dow Jones managed to break our resistance from 11.600 and now it touched our next one from 12.750.
more upward moves as long as 11.600 holds the market.
For the moment the sentiment in the markets is significant positive so, as long as we don't see a break of our supports, we can keep our

USA ELECTION - USA ECONOMY - EURO CRISIS
MARKET CORRECTION IN PROGRESS...
WAITING NEXT SIGNALS FOR SUPPORT
******* END FINANCIAL YEAR 2012**************


STOCK ALERT
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux ... money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected'
~G. Soros

The biggest risk in life is not to have one.
Investment Watch Blog
Australia Penny Shares companies are managed by the worth CROOKS of the system,, most of it wheeling and dealings to clean the holders?? most of them are INsiders/ traders.. ACCOUNTANTS AND CORPORATES LAWYERS,, protected by ASIC
Shame on them >> TRADE WITH THEM >> DO NOT HOLD THEM>> i call them professionals criminals THEY ARE DESTROYING PEOPLE WEALTH
AS 4 November 2011 MARKETS SENTIMENTS BULLISH see updated forecasts chart... DOW TESTING 11400 support, Warning
*********************************************************
MARKET SIGNALS IN CORRECTION..WAITING FOR THE STORM TO SETTLE.. WATCHING SUPPORT FORMATIONS.. MARKET COULD RALLY BY YEAR END short term
TARGET DOW 10400 - SP500 900 long term

Milford Sound in New Zealand go the dragon
If you're looking to invest in penny stocks that aren't part of some "pump and dump" scam, then I've got something you'll be very interested in... sign in and request

STOCK ALERT TDX FLAG UP - STOCK TO WATCH

TAKE NOTE THAT THE mARKET SEEMS TO CONSOLIDATE FOR A TURN ??? bIOTECHS SEEMS TO WARM UP??
accumulation on the penny shares,, be aware of consolidation

our chart updates support 1

our chart updates support 1

dow new chart formation warning

dow new chart formation warning
very important level to watch.. be aware of a dip

BEWARE OF CORPORATE CON MAN AT WORK

Dowjones first support 11900,, on the test *** 12500 ** median line channel broken
elliott wave blog

THE ART OF STEALING FROM SHARE HOLDERS
As a publicly listed company we are governed by the ASX Listing Rules and the Corporations Act and as you would appreciate, there are likely to be some matters that are in the process of being finalised that may be market sensitive. In such circumstances it would not be permissible to make disclosures to you until those matters are concluded and announced to the market,, the law protect ASIC and ASX
just playing with your money
KEEP IN MIND 90 % CORPORATE AUSTRALIA ARE CRIMINAL CROOKS ALONG WITH CORPORATE LAWS
link to ART OF STOCKS MANIPULATIONS
Quote of the day: note that in this market company directors keep very low profiles?? 6 months ago they were flooding the market machine with intentions??
signs of the time?
Dowjones future forecast

ASX TAX SELLING ending soon Watch the bounce

well that a hard one ,, but get ready in case
we may have a surge?
technical speculator page
VIX reverse sharpely
TAX adjustements done??.Happy New Year?
2012 could be a slow start /pending DowJones correction?
the words are Correction.. recession ... and fears of Depression
MOST DIRECTORS ARE ROBBERS ON ASX
Dowjones in correction mode.>> next support?? correction = recession = depression ?? 3 support scenario possible?
Astute accounting taking place
link to cycles theory
WARNING SIGNALS GIVEN ON THE RISING FLAG (3 months periode)
Quote of the moment??
Buying time is upon us.... Everone is getting more and more fearful which leads me to think we are getting closer to this downturns bottom. I'll be buying more as funds free up.
USA DEBTS CEILING DEBATE? 2 august 2011
HOW WILL DOWJONES REACT????

Saturday, June 18, 2011

FINANCIALS PRESS Release

Andrew Ferrara
economics outlook 2012

Market Minute: January 29, 2012: The "January Effect" and the probabilities for 2012

The strength in the S&P 500 this month tells more about the performance for the rest of the year than most investors realise. Over the last 40 years, whenever the US market has had a return above 3.75% in January, the S&P 500 finished the year higher. Currently, the index is up 4.44%.
Since 1970, there has been 13 times when the US market has been above 3.75% in January. Every time the index completed the year with a substantial gain.

The 13 Januarys with returns of 3.75% or greater were in 1971, 72, 75, 76, 79, 83, 85, 87, 88, 89, 91, 97 and 99.

The average gain for the rest of the year was a surprising 19.6%. This means that if this January can finish above 1307.25, then there is a very strong probability of the index going higher in 2012. And as there are only two more trading days left this month, the US market would have to drop 10.77 points or more to cancel out the effect.

Bottom line: The S&P 500 has gained 4.44% in January. With two days remaining, the probability of a good performing 2012 is building. If the US index can close out the month above 1307.25, then there is a strong likelihood of another 15% gain by year-end based on 40 years of data.

Investment approach: The odds for a promising 2012 are mounting. If the S&P 500 does perform well, as the last 13 Januarys with a 3.75% would suggest, then investors may wish to remain fully invested this year to take advantage of the anticipated rise.

From an intermarket perspective, it is also worth noting what happens when the US markets moves up. The US dollar index and bond prices normally move in the opposite direction to the S&P 500. Commodities are closely coordinated with equities. If the stock market advances this year, so should base metal, gold, silver, oil and agricultural grain prices.

Also, there is a shift out of defensive sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare and utilities and a move to growth industries like technology, energy, mining, consumer discretionaries, construction and basic industry.

More research on commodities and the markets will be in the upcoming February newsletter.

Donald W. Dony, FCSI , MFTA


WATCH GOLDMAN SACHS AGAIN???
all  their forecasts  go opposite direction
2011  they forecasted a great year
2012 they forecasting a down year
they are markets manipulators connected to governement

Dow Jones Shocking Prediction Forecast for 2012

There is a shocking Dow Jones predictions for 2012: (sources: internet news websites):
Analyst Goldman Sachs predicts a major military developments in late 2012 and urges its clients to dump shares.
Last year Fox Business Channel for the first time publicly announced planned for the end of 2012 the great war. A former senior analyst and forecaster of the most influential financial services company Goldman Sachs, said a leading dumbfounded that his clients should begin to dump securities, as the military events of late 2012 would entail a major meltdown of financial markets. Anviktori published translation of the article Paul Watson, Infowars.com editor of this information megabombe, fell in a studio FoxBusiness network.
Massive conflict will cause the collapse of the securities market, strategic analyst forecasts Nenner. Yesterday, when the forecaster Charles Nenner told Fox TV (Fox Business network) about what the Dow Jones (Dow Jones) come down to the level of 5.000 because of major military events that shake the world in late 2012, Fox TV hosts David and Elizabeth MacDonald, Esma froze in shock.



Ferrara outlook 2012

Our economic outlook

An editorial opinion 
by Troy Frerichs, CFA
® Senior Investment Officer
January 5, 2012
A fresh start is what many investors are thinking about after leaving 2011 behind. While overall returns were flat-to-positive over the full year, the headlines and associated market volatility left most feeling exhausted.
After a third quarter in which we saw the S&P 500 decline 13.9% and 10-year U.S. treasury rates drop to 1.9% over concerns in Europe, a U.S. sovereign debt downgrade, political disarray in Washington and anemic U.S. economic growth, we had a fourth quarter that reversed most of the damage. While the European overhang was and is still present, improving U.S. economic data led to the S&P 500 gaining 11.8% during the fourth quarter. The bond market told a different story, however, with rates on 10-year treasuries remaining virtually unchanged from the third quarter, seemingly unwilling to accept the better U.S. economic data in the face of the festering European debt crisis.
So once the dust settled, where did that leave us for 2011? In the stock market, virtually the same place that we started, as the S&P 500 ended the year flat, not including a return from dividends (total return of 2.11%). In the bond market, the Barcap U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (a good proxy for the overall bond market) reflected the nearly 2.00% drop in 10-year treasury yields over the course of 2011 and ended the year with a 7.84% total return. Within U.S. stocks, growth stocks outperformed value stocks, and large capitalization stocks outperformed mid- and small- capitalization stocks. Defensive economic sectors of the U.S. market performed best including utilities, consumer staples and healthcare, while more cyclical sectors -- such as materials, industrials and financials -- underperformed the broad market. U.S. stocks also outperformed those of Europe, Japan and emerging markets. Most sectors of the bond market were positive, with safe haven sectors such as treasuries, municipals, TIPS and investment grade corporates performing best.
So what will we do with our fresh start? With the major caveat that the European debt crisis doesn’t spread to the rest of the world, we anticipate 2012 to be a lot like 2011. We think stocks look relatively attractive as investors come to terms with the fact that there is some growth in the U.S. economy. There is a long list of positives going into 2012 like Real GDP that is at an all-time high, record corporate earnings, an improving employment picture, strong consumer spending, a pickup in manufacturing activity, low interest rates, tame inflation, and an election year (typically good for stocks). However, that could all  be wiped out with a complete meltdown in Europe. At the same time, it is difficult to be excited about bonds, particularly treasuries, with yields near all-time lows. When everyone wants something, it usually gets expensive, and right now, we think investors are paying a premium for safety.
People who achieve financial security rarely do so alone
With all of the current economic uncertainty, this is a perfect time to contact your financial representative for an in-depth review of your situation. Backed by a team of experts, your financial representative is equipped to give you the guidance you need. 



one of  my  favorite  professors of  economy  is  PR   Nouriel Roubini
2 articles  describing  the  global picture???
article posted by google 18 june 2011
Debt Will Haunt the Market for Years to Come


Listening to Republican presidential candidates and soon-to-be candidates earlier this week, one might conclude America is going down the tubes, or maybe already has.
Now, along comes New York University economics Prof. Nouriel Roubini, who sees a perfect storm of global events that could complete the down-the-tubes journey, not just for America, but for the rest of the global economy as well.
Among Prof. Roubini’s storm fronts is (1) a fragile U.S. economic recovery, coupled with a mushrooming debt, (2) looming economic problems in China, (3) debt issues eroding government stability in Europe, and (4) Japan’s moribund economy due to a crippling national disaster.
For those who never watched the film “The Perfect Storm,” it was a fictionalized version of a real perfect storm that stuck the U.S. Northeast coast in October 1991, when competing weather fronts clashed to create, well, the film’s title says it all — disparate forces coming together from different directions, making the whole much more devastating than the parts.
Roubini sees the global economic forces lining up for just such an event, possibly as early as 2013. In fact, sounding more like a Vegas oddsmaker than an economics professor, he insists the chances of a global collapse are one in three.
OK, he’s got our attention. But when you think about it, a one-in-three chance means there’s a two-in-three chance there won’t be a planet-wide economic meltdown. In gambler’s terms, that’s not so bad.
The problem is that the world’s decision makers continue to kick the can down the road, a point made in a Bloomberg Internet report on Roubini’s bold prediction, which provoked one ‘net blogger to opine:
“Ever feel like YOUR can is getting kicked down the road?”
He was referring to the public’s inclination to accept as fact the direst predictions from economists, turning a best-guess estimate into a full-blown, self-fulfilling prophecy.
There is one enduring fact about economists predicting future events — they usually give you the worst case, then mitigate the impact by offering various alternatives.
For example, Roubini seems particularly pessimistic about the future of the global economy — with his 33-percent chance of complete failure — while in the next breath he points out that, if the worst doesn’t happen, the global economy will continue to be anemic, but will be OK, or he can envision a scenario in which the global economy actually improves, considerably.
Like most economists, the professor is hedging his bets, which should make everyone feel better about the potential for a meltdown. Roubini was, however, the economist who first predicted, in 2006, a catastrophic global financial meltdown. Two years later, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. imploded, igniting the economic firestorm that sank the global economy to depths not seen since the 1930s.
So, what does all this mean? Are we to prepare for a perfect storm, full recovery or something in between?
Perhaps the answer lies not in the possible outcomes, but in the dynamics that compelled the good professor to wax gloomy in the first place — his belief that governments have been deferring the tough economic decisions for too many years, kicking the can down the road, a chain of events that has an inevitable doomsday feel to it.
The world has been on a spending spree for far too long, and Americans and their government are among the worst offenders. The bills are coming due, and we have no checks to put in the mail.
Copyright 2011 Santa Maria Times. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Fears over pace of global economic recovery weigh on stock markets
LONDON — Concerns over the U.S. economic recovery and expectations China will raise interest rates again weighed on stock markets Monday, while the euro was steady at the start of a potentially crucial week in the Greek debt crisis.
Over the past month, the economic newsflow has turned distinctly negative, particularly out of the U.S. Investors are now worried that the mark up in share prices in the early part of the year may have been overdone — stocks are effectively a leading indicator of economic output for the period ahead.
Nouriel Roubini, a New York University economics professor notorious for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, cautioned against risky investments.
"In the last month, things have changed, the evidence is that maybe this is not just a soft patch but something worse," he said in a speech in Singapore. "If your horizon is the next two or three months, I would be a bit defensive on equities...This is time to be cautious, and safe rather than sorry."
In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 0.2 per cent at 5,777, while France's CAC-40 rose 0.1 per cent to 3,809.22. Germany's DAX fell 0.1 per cent to 7,065. Trading activity in Europe was low as many countries, including Germany and France, were on national holiday though stock markets remained open for business.
Wall Street was poised for a lacklustre opening — Dow futures were up 0.1 per cent to 11,885, while the broader Standard & Poor's 500 futures rose an equivalent rate to 1,265.
Given the public holidays in many parts of Europe and a light economic calendar in the U.S., analysts were skeptical that stocks would gain any momentum over the day.
Tuesday may have more to offer, with Chinese inflation data likely to stoke concerns that the People's Bank of China will tighten monetary policy again soon. U.S. retail sales figures for May will also provide an insight into the state of the U.S. economic recovery — consumer spending accounts for around 70 per cent of the U.S. economy.
"All stock markets remain under pressure going into this week, and in the short-term at least, it is difficult to see the catalyst that is going to spark off a sustainable rally," said David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Index.
In the currency markets, investors continue to monitor any developments surrounding the Greek debt crisis ahead of next week's meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels, where a fresh Greek bailout is on the agenda.
On Friday, the euro tanked amid signs that policymakers in Europe have divergent views on how to deal with the Greek crisis, with the European Central Bank and the German government at odds on getting Greece's bondholders to share some of the pain in helping the country.
Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has proposed that bondholders contribute a "substantial" portion of a fresh bailout package for Greece by giving the country an extra seven years to repay existing bonds. But European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet has said nothing should be done that would be deemed "a credit event" by the ratings agencies and that any private sector involvement has to be done on a voluntary basis.
"A failure to achieve a workable agreement by the end of the eurogroup meeting next Monday threatens the real risk of what Schaeuble described last week as the first unorderly default within the eurozone," said Simon Derrick, senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon.
By late morning London time, the euro was up 0.1 per cent at $1.4355. That's three cents lower than the one-month highs it reached only last Thursday.
Earlier in Asian trading, Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 0.7 per cent to close at 9,448.21 after the government reported that core machinery orders fell unexpectedly by 3.3 per cent during April. The drop came as companies cancelled orders following a devastating March 11 earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan that destroyed or damaged scores of factories.
The decline was the first in four months, evidence that the twin disasters continue to take their toll on Japan's economy. The seasonally adjusted figure includes heavily electrical machinery, engines, machine tools, road vehicles and aircraft but excludes orders for ships and utilities because of their volatility.
South Korea's Kospi closed 0.1 per cent higher at 2,048.74 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index finished 0.4 per cent higher at 22,508.08.
But mainland Chinese shares edged lower as market players reacted to data showing a dip in bank lending and awaited the inflation figures that could show the consumer price index surging to more than 6 per cent.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2 per cent to 2,700.38 after dipping more than 1 per cent earlier in the day. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.2 per cent to 1,110.89.
In the oil markets, crude continued to fall on concerns over the global economic recovery and speculation that Saudi Arabia will decide to raise production levels despite last week's surprise decision by the OPEC oil cartel to maintain current levels.
Benchmark oil for July delivery was down $1 at $98.32 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
____
Pamela Sampson in Bangkok contributed to this story.

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