2013 Markets outlook DowJones

2013 Markets outlook DowJones

ferrara outlook013

WILL MARKET RECOVER FOR END FY 2013

CLICK ON ABOVE
WILL THE MARKETS RECOVER 2013
approaching new high quarter 3 2013

End FY 2013 with a scream???

The Gold Report: As you noted in your last interview with The Gold Report in February, Goldman Sachs was predicting that gold would to go down to $1,200/ounce ($1,200/oz) in several years, and now “Dr. Doom,” Nouriel Roubini, says it’s going to $1,000/oz. What’s your view?

Chen Lin: In the near term, I think gold is being controlled by the paper market on Wall Street, which is unfortunate. However, I’m still bullish for the long run.


2012 2013
has been the top of cycle..
with the imminent correction still in mending
USA election done
smell of war in israel??
yet this market got to get a life
DOWJones chart analysis to be released

Trading Rules

Trading Rules
trading Rules - Be Aware SP and DOWJones are far to high - a correction of 20 % is pending any time,,Timing the USA election **** end of iron ore boom *** fall in big stocks favor the come back of pennyshares****

DOW JONES WATCH FORECASTS

SOON FINANCIAL 2013

Best Six Months for Stock Market Are Underway Says Hirsch

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, November is the beginning of the stock market's strongest six-month period. The "Best Six Months Switching Strategy" goes like this: Invest in the Dow and/or S&P 500 between November 1 and April 30 each year, then switch into safer fixed income assets in May.

"We found that most of the market's gains are made from November to April, whereas you either go down or are flat from May through October; hence the sell in May and go away [strategy]," says Jeff Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Historically, there's a soft period from May through October, as seen in STA's chart below.


"We like to buy in October and get ourselves sober, even though we didn't get our trigger this year because the market was vacillating quite a bit," says Hirsch. He uses a MACD indicator as a trigger for buy and sell moves. Using the MACD, the DJIA's Best Six Months rises to an average gain of 9.3% versus a loss of 1.2% during the Worst Six Months.

On average as seen in the chart below, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 7.5% during the Best Six Month period since 1950, versus 0.3% rise during the Worst 6 Months.

"Last year everyone was bearish — I was one of the lone bulls on the Street. I was really happy with our buy signal," says Hirsch. "This year I'm not so confident because the market technically is struggling against resistance; there are a lot of issues, there's a post-election year coming up, there's fiscal cliffs. So we're going in with tighter stops with our trades this year."

Needless to say, November is off to a very weak start with the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down over 4% month-to-date. Hirsch has already warned of risk in 2013 based on the election cycle and historical weakness when an incumbent president is re-elected.

"Again, we're at the sour spot of the four-year [presidential election] cycle," he admits. "We'll make our trades, but we'll be a lot more cautious and keep the stops a lot tighter instead of leaving it wide open here."

If this is as good as it gets, maybe that's a sound warning for the year ahead. How are you positioning for 2013? Let us know in the comment section below or visit us on Facebook!

More From Breakout:

Beware of Black Friday Trading: Hirsch

Anatomy of a Fragile Market: What to Make of the Selloff

TURBULENT CORRECTION AHEAD,, NEXT TO 10000
BE AWARE Q4 MARKET ASX CORRECTION JUST STARTED = DOW DID SIGNAL TOP = CORRECTION IN PROGRESS = WATCH COUNT THE WAVES
WATCH THE CROOKS DEALINGS ON PENNTSHARES,,,LOTS OF SCANDALS
DOW JONES WATCH FORECASTS
SPECIAL REPORT THE BULL ARE BACK 2012
Dow Jones managed to break our resistance from 11.600 and now it touched our next one from 12.750.
more upward moves as long as 11.600 holds the market.
For the moment the sentiment in the markets is significant positive so, as long as we don't see a break of our supports, we can keep our

USA ELECTION - USA ECONOMY - EURO CRISIS
MARKET CORRECTION IN PROGRESS...
WAITING NEXT SIGNALS FOR SUPPORT
******* END FINANCIAL YEAR 2012**************


STOCK ALERT
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux ... money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected'
~G. Soros

The biggest risk in life is not to have one.
Investment Watch Blog
Australia Penny Shares companies are managed by the worth CROOKS of the system,, most of it wheeling and dealings to clean the holders?? most of them are INsiders/ traders.. ACCOUNTANTS AND CORPORATES LAWYERS,, protected by ASIC
Shame on them >> TRADE WITH THEM >> DO NOT HOLD THEM>> i call them professionals criminals THEY ARE DESTROYING PEOPLE WEALTH
AS 4 November 2011 MARKETS SENTIMENTS BULLISH see updated forecasts chart... DOW TESTING 11400 support, Warning
*********************************************************
MARKET SIGNALS IN CORRECTION..WAITING FOR THE STORM TO SETTLE.. WATCHING SUPPORT FORMATIONS.. MARKET COULD RALLY BY YEAR END short term
TARGET DOW 10400 - SP500 900 long term

Milford Sound in New Zealand go the dragon
If you're looking to invest in penny stocks that aren't part of some "pump and dump" scam, then I've got something you'll be very interested in... sign in and request

STOCK ALERT TDX FLAG UP - STOCK TO WATCH

TAKE NOTE THAT THE mARKET SEEMS TO CONSOLIDATE FOR A TURN ??? bIOTECHS SEEMS TO WARM UP??
accumulation on the penny shares,, be aware of consolidation

our chart updates support 1

our chart updates support 1

dow new chart formation warning

dow new chart formation warning
very important level to watch.. be aware of a dip

BEWARE OF CORPORATE CON MAN AT WORK

Dowjones first support 11900,, on the test *** 12500 ** median line channel broken
elliott wave blog

THE ART OF STEALING FROM SHARE HOLDERS
As a publicly listed company we are governed by the ASX Listing Rules and the Corporations Act and as you would appreciate, there are likely to be some matters that are in the process of being finalised that may be market sensitive. In such circumstances it would not be permissible to make disclosures to you until those matters are concluded and announced to the market,, the law protect ASIC and ASX
just playing with your money
KEEP IN MIND 90 % CORPORATE AUSTRALIA ARE CRIMINAL CROOKS ALONG WITH CORPORATE LAWS
link to ART OF STOCKS MANIPULATIONS
Quote of the day: note that in this market company directors keep very low profiles?? 6 months ago they were flooding the market machine with intentions??
signs of the time?
Dowjones future forecast

ASX TAX SELLING ending soon Watch the bounce

well that a hard one ,, but get ready in case
we may have a surge?
technical speculator page
VIX reverse sharpely
TAX adjustements done??.Happy New Year?
2012 could be a slow start /pending DowJones correction?
the words are Correction.. recession ... and fears of Depression
MOST DIRECTORS ARE ROBBERS ON ASX
Dowjones in correction mode.>> next support?? correction = recession = depression ?? 3 support scenario possible?
Astute accounting taking place
link to cycles theory
WARNING SIGNALS GIVEN ON THE RISING FLAG (3 months periode)
Quote of the moment??
Buying time is upon us.... Everone is getting more and more fearful which leads me to think we are getting closer to this downturns bottom. I'll be buying more as funds free up.
USA DEBTS CEILING DEBATE? 2 august 2011
HOW WILL DOWJONES REACT????

Monday, December 20, 2010

SLT play with very astute raiders

select vaccin code SLT
price 005 cents shares and 004 cents for options
excercise 0.002 by 2013

all well look after , with issues at 0.002 with free options..
SLT will change directions most likely, and accordingly will need to have a capital reconstruction..
at present it indicate 1 for 40
needed to have the shares at 20 for a new prospectus??
respectiveley it will have
options exercise at 8 cents
shares at 20 cents
presents options trading at 16 cents without any premium
those guys are playing very safe

stockmarkets signalling TOPS

Sell, Sell, Sell
By Christian A. DeHaemer | Monday, December 20th, 2010

Here it is, the end of another fantastic year.

The NASDAQ is up 26% over the last 52 weeks, the S&P500 is up 24%, and the DJIA is up 20%.

Heck, it's been a great year at Crisis & Opportunity as well. Readers have seen gains of 759% in a small Mongolian oil company, 52% on a cruise ship in a week, and 251% gains on a safety syringe maker.

Lets face it: greed is back. The speculators have returned and the fast money is seeking risk.

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Froth is back

There is no better example of this froth than the hot Chinese IPO's Youku.com. Called the “Netflix of China,” it returned 161% on the first day.

All sorts of companies are running. New Energy Technologies (NENE.OB) — one of Jeff Siegel's picks — went from 0.31 to $3.29 in a month.

And lastly, one of my garbage stocks, Madcatz (ASE: MCZ), a purveyor of video game accessories, shot up 250% in a few weeks.

That type of momentum chasing doesn't happen in bear markets; in fact it's more indicative of a top.

I've written before that this market is setting up just as it did in 2004. We are three years after a massive market correction. The Fed and Congress are doing everything they can to shoot money into the economy.

We've just had a major stock market rally similar to 2003, and the vast spectrum of negatives from housing to jobs seems to be getting better...

Here is what 2004 looked like:

2004 sp500

There's a chart that will give you indigestion on the way to a 10% gain.

Every rally was sold hard, blowing out the longs. Every dip reversed strong destroying the shorts. Double dip was the dominant fear. And every sell-off got run over by easy money from the Fed.

Looking at this chart, there is no easy way to tell when a sell-off is going to happen. But you'll notice that the dips are reversed when there is a MACD crossover below the centerline (0).

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

For those who don't know, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence is one of the simplest and easy-to-understand momentum indicators around.

It was developed by Gerald Appel in the late 70s and should be in every investor's tool box.

The MACD uses two trend-following indicators called moving averages and turns them into a momentum oscillator by subtracting the longer moving average from the shorter moving average.

As a result, you have a trend following momentum indicator that is very useful as a turnaround signal... You buy when the moving averages cross (blue and red lines) below the centerline; you sell the cross above the center line.

It works very well in choppy markets.

And here are three reasons to believe we may need it within the next 90 days...

Overdue for a correction

VIX is sleeping. The BCOE market volatility index is a fear indicator. When investors are bearish, it goes off the charts.

Note the sell-off in 2008, which saw the Vix launch to 90. Right now it is at 16.

This is telling us that the majority of option buyers are bullish — a contrarian indicator...


vix 2010


Price-to-earnings ratios are high

pe ratios

Does this look like a market that is at a bottom?

P/E ratios are at the high-end of their range. Over the past 130 years, when P/E's reach these levels — we have a correction.

Double top on many indexes

Many indexes like the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ are showing double tops. Would you buy that or sell it?

qqqq

And lastly, I'm having a hard time finding things I want to buy...

That usually means there are fewer stocks worth owning at these levels.

I would suggest you take some profits and sit on some cash. This market will have a 10% correction within the next three months.

You should buy it. I will.

Have a great holiday week,

chris sig

Christian DeHaemer
Editor, Wealth Daily

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Comment on / Rate this Article

Wealth Daily Blogs


Economic Releases for the week of Monday, December 20th, 2010:

Dec 22 - GDP
Dec 22 - Existing Home Sales
Dec 22 - Crude Inventories
Dec 23 - Personal Income and Spending
Dec 23 - Durable Orders
Dec 23 - Initial Claims
Dec 23 - Michigan Sentiment
Dec 23 - New Home Sales

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