2013 Markets outlook DowJones

2013 Markets outlook DowJones

ferrara outlook013

WILL MARKET RECOVER FOR END FY 2013

CLICK ON ABOVE
WILL THE MARKETS RECOVER 2013
approaching new high quarter 3 2013

End FY 2013 with a scream???

The Gold Report: As you noted in your last interview with The Gold Report in February, Goldman Sachs was predicting that gold would to go down to $1,200/ounce ($1,200/oz) in several years, and now “Dr. Doom,” Nouriel Roubini, says it’s going to $1,000/oz. What’s your view?

Chen Lin: In the near term, I think gold is being controlled by the paper market on Wall Street, which is unfortunate. However, I’m still bullish for the long run.


2012 2013
has been the top of cycle..
with the imminent correction still in mending
USA election done
smell of war in israel??
yet this market got to get a life
DOWJones chart analysis to be released

Trading Rules

Trading Rules
trading Rules - Be Aware SP and DOWJones are far to high - a correction of 20 % is pending any time,,Timing the USA election **** end of iron ore boom *** fall in big stocks favor the come back of pennyshares****

DOW JONES WATCH FORECASTS

SOON FINANCIAL 2013

Best Six Months for Stock Market Are Underway Says Hirsch

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, November is the beginning of the stock market's strongest six-month period. The "Best Six Months Switching Strategy" goes like this: Invest in the Dow and/or S&P 500 between November 1 and April 30 each year, then switch into safer fixed income assets in May.

"We found that most of the market's gains are made from November to April, whereas you either go down or are flat from May through October; hence the sell in May and go away [strategy]," says Jeff Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Historically, there's a soft period from May through October, as seen in STA's chart below.


"We like to buy in October and get ourselves sober, even though we didn't get our trigger this year because the market was vacillating quite a bit," says Hirsch. He uses a MACD indicator as a trigger for buy and sell moves. Using the MACD, the DJIA's Best Six Months rises to an average gain of 9.3% versus a loss of 1.2% during the Worst Six Months.

On average as seen in the chart below, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 7.5% during the Best Six Month period since 1950, versus 0.3% rise during the Worst 6 Months.

"Last year everyone was bearish — I was one of the lone bulls on the Street. I was really happy with our buy signal," says Hirsch. "This year I'm not so confident because the market technically is struggling against resistance; there are a lot of issues, there's a post-election year coming up, there's fiscal cliffs. So we're going in with tighter stops with our trades this year."

Needless to say, November is off to a very weak start with the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down over 4% month-to-date. Hirsch has already warned of risk in 2013 based on the election cycle and historical weakness when an incumbent president is re-elected.

"Again, we're at the sour spot of the four-year [presidential election] cycle," he admits. "We'll make our trades, but we'll be a lot more cautious and keep the stops a lot tighter instead of leaving it wide open here."

If this is as good as it gets, maybe that's a sound warning for the year ahead. How are you positioning for 2013? Let us know in the comment section below or visit us on Facebook!

More From Breakout:

Beware of Black Friday Trading: Hirsch

Anatomy of a Fragile Market: What to Make of the Selloff

TURBULENT CORRECTION AHEAD,, NEXT TO 10000
BE AWARE Q4 MARKET ASX CORRECTION JUST STARTED = DOW DID SIGNAL TOP = CORRECTION IN PROGRESS = WATCH COUNT THE WAVES
WATCH THE CROOKS DEALINGS ON PENNTSHARES,,,LOTS OF SCANDALS
DOW JONES WATCH FORECASTS
SPECIAL REPORT THE BULL ARE BACK 2012
Dow Jones managed to break our resistance from 11.600 and now it touched our next one from 12.750.
more upward moves as long as 11.600 holds the market.
For the moment the sentiment in the markets is significant positive so, as long as we don't see a break of our supports, we can keep our

USA ELECTION - USA ECONOMY - EURO CRISIS
MARKET CORRECTION IN PROGRESS...
WAITING NEXT SIGNALS FOR SUPPORT
******* END FINANCIAL YEAR 2012**************


STOCK ALERT
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux ... money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected'
~G. Soros

The biggest risk in life is not to have one.
Investment Watch Blog
Australia Penny Shares companies are managed by the worth CROOKS of the system,, most of it wheeling and dealings to clean the holders?? most of them are INsiders/ traders.. ACCOUNTANTS AND CORPORATES LAWYERS,, protected by ASIC
Shame on them >> TRADE WITH THEM >> DO NOT HOLD THEM>> i call them professionals criminals THEY ARE DESTROYING PEOPLE WEALTH
AS 4 November 2011 MARKETS SENTIMENTS BULLISH see updated forecasts chart... DOW TESTING 11400 support, Warning
*********************************************************
MARKET SIGNALS IN CORRECTION..WAITING FOR THE STORM TO SETTLE.. WATCHING SUPPORT FORMATIONS.. MARKET COULD RALLY BY YEAR END short term
TARGET DOW 10400 - SP500 900 long term

Milford Sound in New Zealand go the dragon
If you're looking to invest in penny stocks that aren't part of some "pump and dump" scam, then I've got something you'll be very interested in... sign in and request

STOCK ALERT TDX FLAG UP - STOCK TO WATCH

TAKE NOTE THAT THE mARKET SEEMS TO CONSOLIDATE FOR A TURN ??? bIOTECHS SEEMS TO WARM UP??
accumulation on the penny shares,, be aware of consolidation

our chart updates support 1

our chart updates support 1

dow new chart formation warning

dow new chart formation warning
very important level to watch.. be aware of a dip

BEWARE OF CORPORATE CON MAN AT WORK

Dowjones first support 11900,, on the test *** 12500 ** median line channel broken
elliott wave blog

THE ART OF STEALING FROM SHARE HOLDERS
As a publicly listed company we are governed by the ASX Listing Rules and the Corporations Act and as you would appreciate, there are likely to be some matters that are in the process of being finalised that may be market sensitive. In such circumstances it would not be permissible to make disclosures to you until those matters are concluded and announced to the market,, the law protect ASIC and ASX
just playing with your money
KEEP IN MIND 90 % CORPORATE AUSTRALIA ARE CRIMINAL CROOKS ALONG WITH CORPORATE LAWS
link to ART OF STOCKS MANIPULATIONS
Quote of the day: note that in this market company directors keep very low profiles?? 6 months ago they were flooding the market machine with intentions??
signs of the time?
Dowjones future forecast

ASX TAX SELLING ending soon Watch the bounce

well that a hard one ,, but get ready in case
we may have a surge?
technical speculator page
VIX reverse sharpely
TAX adjustements done??.Happy New Year?
2012 could be a slow start /pending DowJones correction?
the words are Correction.. recession ... and fears of Depression
MOST DIRECTORS ARE ROBBERS ON ASX
Dowjones in correction mode.>> next support?? correction = recession = depression ?? 3 support scenario possible?
Astute accounting taking place
link to cycles theory
WARNING SIGNALS GIVEN ON THE RISING FLAG (3 months periode)
Quote of the moment??
Buying time is upon us.... Everone is getting more and more fearful which leads me to think we are getting closer to this downturns bottom. I'll be buying more as funds free up.
USA DEBTS CEILING DEBATE? 2 august 2011
HOW WILL DOWJONES REACT????

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Australia pension and superfund

The great Australian superannuation fraud

By Alex Messenger
16 August 2010

Returns on Australian compulsory superannuation savings, a scheme sold to workers as a substitute for the old-age pension, have barely surpassed the rate of inflation over the last 14 years, according to official figures compiled by the government-funded Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC). These figures are proof that the superannuation system, which Labor and the trade unions proclaim as their “proudest achievement”, is one of the greatest swindles in Australian history.

According to the ABC’s compilation of figures released annually by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, the average annual return on superannuation investments between 1997 and 2009 was just 3 percent, as compared to an inflation rate across the same period of 2.8 percent. Taken over past decade, superannuation funds have returned less than the inflation rate—meaning that workers would have been better off simply putting their money in the bank.

The figures are partly explained by market volatility, especially the huge losses during the initial stages of the global financial crisis, and by poor investment decisions on the part of superannuation funds managers. Just as importantly though, the risible returns are all that is left over once investment advisors and fund managers, including trade union bureaucrats, take their hefty slice. A staggering $A17 billion in fees—or $48 million per day—is siphoned off each year from workers’ savings. As the ABC pointed out, this sum alone would be sufficient to fund the entire Australian old age pension system. Yet none of the major parties—Labor, Liberal or the Greens—has commented on these extraordinary figures during the current election campaign, much less on the question of old age incomes more generally.

Compulsory superannuation, introduced by the Keating Labor government in 1992, involved an obligatory employer contribution of 3 percent of each worker’s wage to superannuation funds, which would then be invested in Australian securities, especially the stock market. The chief aim was to transfer a large pool of capital into Australian investment banks, which would then be in a position to punch above their weight on the global stage. In other words, there is a direct link between Labor’s super system, the refusal of successive governments to increase the poverty-level old-age pension and the increasing financialisation of the Australian economy.

The trade unions were involved from the outset. The scheme was a key plank of the “Accord” reached by trade unions and the Labor government to suppress real wages, boost “international competitiveness” and end worker militancy. Union leaders are now involved in the management of superannuation funds worth billions of dollars and thus have a direct stake in ensuring the ongoing implementation of pro-market policies to boost the financial markets.

By 1996 the employer contribution rate had risen to 9 percent. However, with the assistance and support of the unions, this levy was compensated by the abolition or reduction of wage increases. In other words, the compulsory employer contributions were, in effect, paid by the workers themselves.

By 2010, the Australian superannuation pool had risen to $1.17 trillion, making Australia the largest per capita holder of superannuation funds in the world and the fourth largest in gross terms. The figure is equivalent to 100 percent of GDP. Superannuation funds own 26 percent of shares on the Australian stock exchange. As part of Labor’s original deal with the unions, about a quarter of the superannuation pool is controlled by the unions in so-called “industry” superfunds.

In this year’s budget, handed down in May, Labor promised the unions and the finance industry that it would increase compulsory superannuation contributions from 9 to 12 percent of wages by 2019. In line with the current model, then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd invited employers, at the time of the budget, to take the new super impost “into account when negotiating future wage agreements”. According to Labor’s estimates, a further 3 percent increase in super contributions will add $85 billion to Australia’s superannuation pool in the next decade, and more than $500 billion by 2037. The stakes for Australian capitalism in maintaining and expanding the current superannuation system are therefore huge. Finance sector research company Rice Warner estimates that within 15 years, total superannuation holdings will have increased to $A2.7 trillion.

According to Jeff Breshnahan, head of superannuation research firm SuperRatings, the bulk of the $17 billion from compulsory super investments—about $9 billion—goes to well-paid investment managers, whose salaries are, even by finance industry standards, “incredibly high”. As Mike Rafferty, a researcher at the University of Sydney points out, “average wage and salary earners…are subsidising massive salaries that go to fund managers.”

Moreover, fund managers receive these huge salaries regardless of whether their investment decisions increase or reduce workers savings over the course of a given year. Their pay is calculated not on return rates, but on the size of funds under management. Because 9 percent of workers’ wages will roll into the share market regardless of market performance, management salaries are guaranteed. Further, as the ABC pointed out, the vast bulk of the $1.17 trillion super pool is made up of contributions, not of returns on investments. Contributions have been boosted by a series of tax concessions engineered to make superannuation a superficially attractive investment for higher income workers. Prior to the eruption of the global financial crisis in 2007-08, tax incentives introduced by the Howard Coalition government caused a sudden exodus of household assets into super funds. Some $381 billion, about a third of the total $1.17 trillion super pool, was added in the years 2005 to 2007.

The most powerful indictment of the compulsory superannuation system is abundant proof that most workers will still be dependent on the poverty-level pension in their retirement. In other words, despite contributing 9 percent of their wages to Australian superannuation funds, and thus the stock market, every week for the past 15 years, most Australians still have superannuation accounts of less than $70,000. As former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd admitted earlier this year, “a low-income earner on half of average weekly ordinary time earnings [that is, on $31,000 per year] would expect to be 80 percent reliant on the age pension after retirement.”

The solution put forward by the superannuation industry, government and the unions is not to increase the aged pension—which has continued to fall in real terms over the last 20 years—but to increase the retirement age for eligibility for the pension. Under plans unveiled by Labor in the 2009 budget, the Australian government will increase the pension age from 65 to 67 in 2019 —the first increase in the male retirement age since aged pensions were introduced in 1909. Given business demands for budget austerity, the proposed change could well be brought forward. Treasurer Wayne Swan said earlier this year that unless the pension age was increased substantially, society could not afford to look after its elderly: “The blue-collar workforce is impacted upon by the stress on their bodies over time, I openly acknowledge that. But what we have to do is go back to basics here… if we don’t make these changes, the system may not be viable.” Given that the amount siphoned off in superannuation fees could pay for pensions, the statement is a complete lie. Swan’s comments underscore the degree to which he, the Labor government and the whole political establishment is in the thrall of big business—more specifically, of the powerful finance sector—that participated enthusiastically in the worldwide speculative orgy that precipitated the current global economic crisis.

Click here for full coverage of the SEP 2010 election campaign

Authorised by N. Beams, 307 Macquarie St, Liverpool, NSW 2170

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