2013 Markets outlook DowJones

2013 Markets outlook DowJones

ferrara outlook013

WILL MARKET RECOVER FOR END FY 2013

CLICK ON ABOVE
WILL THE MARKETS RECOVER 2013
approaching new high quarter 3 2013

End FY 2013 with a scream???

The Gold Report: As you noted in your last interview with The Gold Report in February, Goldman Sachs was predicting that gold would to go down to $1,200/ounce ($1,200/oz) in several years, and now “Dr. Doom,” Nouriel Roubini, says it’s going to $1,000/oz. What’s your view?

Chen Lin: In the near term, I think gold is being controlled by the paper market on Wall Street, which is unfortunate. However, I’m still bullish for the long run.


2012 2013
has been the top of cycle..
with the imminent correction still in mending
USA election done
smell of war in israel??
yet this market got to get a life
DOWJones chart analysis to be released

Trading Rules

Trading Rules
trading Rules - Be Aware SP and DOWJones are far to high - a correction of 20 % is pending any time,,Timing the USA election **** end of iron ore boom *** fall in big stocks favor the come back of pennyshares****

DOW JONES WATCH FORECASTS

SOON FINANCIAL 2013

Best Six Months for Stock Market Are Underway Says Hirsch

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, November is the beginning of the stock market's strongest six-month period. The "Best Six Months Switching Strategy" goes like this: Invest in the Dow and/or S&P 500 between November 1 and April 30 each year, then switch into safer fixed income assets in May.

"We found that most of the market's gains are made from November to April, whereas you either go down or are flat from May through October; hence the sell in May and go away [strategy]," says Jeff Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Historically, there's a soft period from May through October, as seen in STA's chart below.


"We like to buy in October and get ourselves sober, even though we didn't get our trigger this year because the market was vacillating quite a bit," says Hirsch. He uses a MACD indicator as a trigger for buy and sell moves. Using the MACD, the DJIA's Best Six Months rises to an average gain of 9.3% versus a loss of 1.2% during the Worst Six Months.

On average as seen in the chart below, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 7.5% during the Best Six Month period since 1950, versus 0.3% rise during the Worst 6 Months.

"Last year everyone was bearish — I was one of the lone bulls on the Street. I was really happy with our buy signal," says Hirsch. "This year I'm not so confident because the market technically is struggling against resistance; there are a lot of issues, there's a post-election year coming up, there's fiscal cliffs. So we're going in with tighter stops with our trades this year."

Needless to say, November is off to a very weak start with the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down over 4% month-to-date. Hirsch has already warned of risk in 2013 based on the election cycle and historical weakness when an incumbent president is re-elected.

"Again, we're at the sour spot of the four-year [presidential election] cycle," he admits. "We'll make our trades, but we'll be a lot more cautious and keep the stops a lot tighter instead of leaving it wide open here."

If this is as good as it gets, maybe that's a sound warning for the year ahead. How are you positioning for 2013? Let us know in the comment section below or visit us on Facebook!

More From Breakout:

Beware of Black Friday Trading: Hirsch

Anatomy of a Fragile Market: What to Make of the Selloff

TURBULENT CORRECTION AHEAD,, NEXT TO 10000
BE AWARE Q4 MARKET ASX CORRECTION JUST STARTED = DOW DID SIGNAL TOP = CORRECTION IN PROGRESS = WATCH COUNT THE WAVES
WATCH THE CROOKS DEALINGS ON PENNTSHARES,,,LOTS OF SCANDALS
DOW JONES WATCH FORECASTS
SPECIAL REPORT THE BULL ARE BACK 2012
Dow Jones managed to break our resistance from 11.600 and now it touched our next one from 12.750.
more upward moves as long as 11.600 holds the market.
For the moment the sentiment in the markets is significant positive so, as long as we don't see a break of our supports, we can keep our

USA ELECTION - USA ECONOMY - EURO CRISIS
MARKET CORRECTION IN PROGRESS...
WAITING NEXT SIGNALS FOR SUPPORT
******* END FINANCIAL YEAR 2012**************


STOCK ALERT
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux ... money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected'
~G. Soros

The biggest risk in life is not to have one.
Investment Watch Blog
Australia Penny Shares companies are managed by the worth CROOKS of the system,, most of it wheeling and dealings to clean the holders?? most of them are INsiders/ traders.. ACCOUNTANTS AND CORPORATES LAWYERS,, protected by ASIC
Shame on them >> TRADE WITH THEM >> DO NOT HOLD THEM>> i call them professionals criminals THEY ARE DESTROYING PEOPLE WEALTH
AS 4 November 2011 MARKETS SENTIMENTS BULLISH see updated forecasts chart... DOW TESTING 11400 support, Warning
*********************************************************
MARKET SIGNALS IN CORRECTION..WAITING FOR THE STORM TO SETTLE.. WATCHING SUPPORT FORMATIONS.. MARKET COULD RALLY BY YEAR END short term
TARGET DOW 10400 - SP500 900 long term

Milford Sound in New Zealand go the dragon
If you're looking to invest in penny stocks that aren't part of some "pump and dump" scam, then I've got something you'll be very interested in... sign in and request

STOCK ALERT TDX FLAG UP - STOCK TO WATCH

TAKE NOTE THAT THE mARKET SEEMS TO CONSOLIDATE FOR A TURN ??? bIOTECHS SEEMS TO WARM UP??
accumulation on the penny shares,, be aware of consolidation

our chart updates support 1

our chart updates support 1

dow new chart formation warning

dow new chart formation warning
very important level to watch.. be aware of a dip

BEWARE OF CORPORATE CON MAN AT WORK

Dowjones first support 11900,, on the test *** 12500 ** median line channel broken
elliott wave blog

THE ART OF STEALING FROM SHARE HOLDERS
As a publicly listed company we are governed by the ASX Listing Rules and the Corporations Act and as you would appreciate, there are likely to be some matters that are in the process of being finalised that may be market sensitive. In such circumstances it would not be permissible to make disclosures to you until those matters are concluded and announced to the market,, the law protect ASIC and ASX
just playing with your money
KEEP IN MIND 90 % CORPORATE AUSTRALIA ARE CRIMINAL CROOKS ALONG WITH CORPORATE LAWS
link to ART OF STOCKS MANIPULATIONS
Quote of the day: note that in this market company directors keep very low profiles?? 6 months ago they were flooding the market machine with intentions??
signs of the time?
Dowjones future forecast

ASX TAX SELLING ending soon Watch the bounce

well that a hard one ,, but get ready in case
we may have a surge?
technical speculator page
VIX reverse sharpely
TAX adjustements done??.Happy New Year?
2012 could be a slow start /pending DowJones correction?
the words are Correction.. recession ... and fears of Depression
MOST DIRECTORS ARE ROBBERS ON ASX
Dowjones in correction mode.>> next support?? correction = recession = depression ?? 3 support scenario possible?
Astute accounting taking place
link to cycles theory
WARNING SIGNALS GIVEN ON THE RISING FLAG (3 months periode)
Quote of the moment??
Buying time is upon us.... Everone is getting more and more fearful which leads me to think we are getting closer to this downturns bottom. I'll be buying more as funds free up.
USA DEBTS CEILING DEBATE? 2 august 2011
HOW WILL DOWJONES REACT????

Thursday, January 13, 2011

2012 ASX Market timing

Dow Jones  forecasts 14000 - 2012



 WELCOME 2012  CYCLES FORECASTS
2012
update  chart DJI 5 years as 24/06/2011
DOW monthly chart  as  5/08/2011

our  sudies are always based on the DowJones, as all markets follow in general the DOW
12000 level  smashed    support ???   next target  11600  that on daily chart
on the  weekly  chart  we see a down trend to 10600 
on the monthly  chart   we can see  a down trend to  9000


 Forecast  2011  are still progressing 
with  continuous selling on  the Dowjones,
2011
so far into 2011--- penny shares getting momentum..
keep in mind that a run is not for ever
i am selling in this momentum
.. cheers and book my hollydays sking in China...
strict discipline must apply in this game


Cramer's Dow 30 Prediction: 13K and Beyond


NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- People do a lot of top down analysis at this time of the year, trying to figure out how much the Dow and the S&P could go up--or down--in the coming year. That's not my style. As someone who is a stock picker, I like a bottoms up approach, analyzing each Dow component to come up with what I think the most visible index will deliver in 2011.
Here's my annual analysis, case by case, that adds up to a target of 13,365 for the Dow Jones next year -- a 16% gain from current levels and a bountiful return -- based on a prognostication of the performance of the individual members of the venerable index.
Although I am a bottoms up guy, as a backdrop I am presuming a resumption of decent U.S. growth courtesy of the Fed -- call it 3% to 4% -- continued worldwide growth, a stable to slight decline in the dollar and a decent rise in rates (30-year Treasury bond going to 4.8%) as befitting a return to economic health.
Still, I don't want to overplay the macro hand. I am seeing these terrific gains on the Dow from the players within, not the trends outside. Here's how I get to my 13,365 target.
1. Alcoa (AA_): Let's start off with a bang. With just a $14 billion market cap -- and being the leading independent producer of a metal that will be in intense demand in 2011 because of boosted aerospace, autos and power plant production -- Alcoa will be hard-pressed to stay independent. Earnings have been depressed throughout the downturn, but the cash flow has picked up, courtesy the excellent stewardship of CEO Klaus Kleinfeld. If the company stands alone its stock can advance and get a 12 multiple, a slight discount to many of the cyclical stocks in the average, and that would put it at $18. But I think it gets bought out at $22, a fabulous return and perhaps my favorite in the whole average.
2. American Express (AXP_) just doesn't get the rewards it deserves in this market with people constantly trying to lump it in with slow growth banks or Visa (V_) and MasterCard (MA_) which have been whacked by the Fed because of debit fees. American Express is a credit card company with fewer and fewer defaults and excellent growth, especially with the rebounding world economy, and it should be treated as such. I see the company earning $4 next year and deserving a 15 multiple, more in keeping with double-digit growth companies. Call it $60.
and more

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10953794/1/cramers-dow-30-prediction-13k-and-beyond.html

 

Will The Dow Hit A Record High In 2011?

Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011?
The Dow Jones industrial average rose for an eighth day in a row — its longest winning streak of the year — adding 37 points and setting a fresh 2009 high. Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 NEW YORK AP — Could the Dow set a. Itaposs Roddyaposs world, the rest just along for ride -- FOX News Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 WAFB Channel 9, Baton Rouge, LA Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 Member Center: Create Account Log In Manage Account Log Out. SITE SEARCH WEB SEARCH BY Google. HOME About WAFB Contact Us. Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 -- WAFB Channel 9, Baton. He can jump. He can make plays on the ball. Heaposll block. He can do everything.” Not bad, considering White didnapost start playing high school football until his junior year. Back then, wrestling was his thing, and he wasnapost too bad at that, either, winning a. Could the Dow set a record high next year That question would have seemed crazy early last year when fear and panic enveloped the stock market and the Dow Jones industrial average plunged to 6547 on March 9. PHILADELPHIA Michael Vick is barred from owning a dog for a year and a half, but the star quarterbackaposs comment that heaposd like to bring one into his house generated renewed outrage and support. The convicted dogfighting ring operator told the news. Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 By STAN CHOE , 12.17.10, 06:. Many analysts forecast stock prices will rise further in 2011, but are skeptical that the Dow will set a record so soon.. Aggreko Trading In 4Q Better Than Anticipated -- FOXBusiness Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 Stock Market News.

Stocks End Up Dow Hits Highest Level in 2 Years -- CNBC Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 -- DailyFinance U.S. Stocks Retreat on Valuations, Surge in Treasury Yields -- BusinessWeek Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 -- AP News Wire. Vick says he would like a pet dog, renewing debate -- FOX News Spencer Hawesapos 18 points help 76ers win on the road -- The bad news, and it really wasnapost all that bad, was that the Dow Jones industrials INDU. so, find yerself a swaggering, poker-playing, high quality pro who has a track record of beating this “rigged game.” there are plenty of us out there. NEW YORK AP — Could the Dow set a record high next year That question would have seemed crazy early last year when fear and panic enveloped the stock market and the Dow Jones industrial average plunged to 6,547 on March 9. Many investors thought it. WIS is South Carolina’s news leader, covering local news, weather, sports and community information in Columbia, Lexington, Sumter, Orangeburg, Newberry, Winnsboro and the rest of the Midlands. Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 -- KTTC Rochester, Austin. Could the Dow set a record high next year. Many analysts forecast stock prices will rise further in 2011, but are skeptical that the Dow will set a record so soon.. Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011. Many analysts forecast stock prices will rise further in 2011, but are skeptical that the Dow will set a record so soon.. Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 -- WIS News 10. Confidence among U.S. small business owners continued to rise, reaching a three-year high last month, according to the National. oil inventories Honeywellaposs 2011 outlook and Atlanta Fed Pres Lockhart speaks. THURSDAY: Housing starts, jobless claims.
NEW YORK — Could the Dow set a record high next year Friday, December 17, 2010. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up about 48 points. Unemployment rose to 9.8 percent in November, a seven-month high. Itaposs exceeded 9 percent for a record stretch of 19 months. And some economists predict it could climb to 10 percent by early. Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 STAN CHOE -- 12/17/2010 11:46:15 AM. Could the Dow set a record high next year Could the Dow set a record high next year. Many analysts forecast stock prices will rise further in 2011, but are skeptical that the Dow will set a record so soon.. Will The Dow Hit A Record High In 2011 -- Project Economy News. While the weekend box-office was the second lowest grossing of the year, a handful of art-house films in limited release show theres potential sleeper hits in the making. following its 2010 record-setting opening weekend average 88,863 the. Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 -- Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 Fed cites unemployment in sticking with bond plan -- Cleveland Plain Dealer LONDON -Dow Jones- Aggreko PLC AGK. Trading in International Power Projects improved in the fourth quarter, with the record order-intake secured in the first half now generating revenues, and the quarter also saw a much reduced off-hire rate On an. New Jersey will get the Rocketsapos first-round draft pick in 2012, the Lakersapos first-round pick in 2011 and current Lakers shooting guard. but Hawes put in a rebound and Holiday hit a high-arcing 3-pointer to push the lead to 68-60. After a basket by. Dow up 42 Oracle, RIM results cheer Street -- MSN Money Will Black Swan and The Kings Speech Break Out Big -- Wall Street Journal

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Dow's Next Upside Target 13,000-13,500: Charts

Published: Thursday, 30 Dec 2010 | 3:39 AM ET
Text Size
By: Daryl Guppy
CNBC Contributor
U.S. markets are looking to end off the year on a positive note, hitting new closing-highs on Wednesday, as investors remain optimistic about the prospects for equities in 2011. But how much further can this uptrend continue for?
When a market has been moribund for so long, any movement, no matter how small, takes on additional significance.  The Dow's [.DJIA  11787.38    55.48  (+0.47%)] rise above 11,600 is a move towards the upper part of a sideways trading range that dominated the markets in 2010.
It is driven by changes in money supply conditions created by the latest round of quantitative easing and some suggest this does not reflect any fundamental change in economic conditions.
The move from the trading band low at 9,600 to 11,600 looks an impressive 20 percent but it hides a generally weaker performance of the market when measured against Asian markets.

CLICK ON GRAPH TO ENLARGE
Dow Jones Industrial Average

Year-on-year the Dow's rise is around 10 percent from 10,500 to 11,600. This raises some questions about the strength of the move beyond 11,600. The move to 11,600 is interesting from a technical perspective. It has been a long time coming, but 11,600 is the projection target for the inverted head and shoulder pattern that developed between November 2008 and July 2009.  It has taken almost two years for this long term chart pattern to play out.
A number of European markets in particular developed similar inverted head and shoulder patterns around the same time in 2008 to 2009. However these markets have reached their projection targets much earlier and have since developed new patterns of breakout behavior. These markets, including the DAX [.GDAXI  7075.7    0.59  (+0.01%)] and the FTSE [.FTSE  6002.07    -21.81  (-0.36%)] provide some indication of how the Dow may develop as it tests the inverted head and shoulder target level at 11,600.
Additionally, the breakout from a broad sideways consolidation band is not unique to the Dow. This same pattern of behavior is seen in many European and Asian markets, and in a number of commodity markets, including oil. The width of the trading consolidation band is used to project the next upside target. With the Dow, this is between 13,000 and 13,500. The variation is due to the imprecise support level created at the lower edge of the Dow's consolidation area.
Either of these targets suggests a reasonable level of return for the Dow, but they ignore one important feature associated with the achievement of the inverted head and shoulder pattern targets. The continuation of the uptrend after the target has been achieved is not guaranteed. The market may move sideways, using the 11,600 level as a support level and moving slowly towards the new trading band projection targets. The breakout above 11,600 does not necessarily make for strong trending behavior.
This remains a stock pickers market rather than an investors market. In 2010 the market added, at best, 20 percent. Over the same period Baidu [BIDU  107.73    1.48  (+1.39%)] added around 130 percent. Finding stocks that display consistent strength is the challenge for 2011. Their strength may be aided by a tepid Dow breakout above 11,600. Traders will look for rally and retreat behavior in the index as the 11,600 level is tested as support and as the market probes towards trading band targets near 13,000 or 13,500.
Daryl Guppy is a trader and author of Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders –www.guppytraders.com . He is a regular guest on CNBC's Asia Squawk Box. He is a speaker at trading conferences in China, Asia, Australia and Europe.
If you would like Daryl to chart a specific stock, commodity or currency, please write to us at ChartingAsia@cnbc.com. He is now also on Facebook.
CNBC assumes no responsibility for any losses, damages or liability whatsoever suffered or incurred by any person, resulting from or attributable to the use of the information published on this site. User is using this information at his/her sole risk.
© 2011 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reservedhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/40849323


MAC FABER PREDICT CORRECTION
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/marc-faber-on-investing-opportunities.html