go the dragon
Dow Jones forecasts 14000 - 2012
WELCOME 2012 CYCLES FORECASTS
WELCOME 2012 CYCLES FORECASTS
2012
update chart DJI 5 years as 24/06/2011
DOW monthly chart as 5/08/2011
update chart DJI 5 years as 24/06/2011
our sudies are always based on the DowJones, as all markets follow in general the DOW
12000 level smashed support ??? next target 11600 that on daily chart
on the weekly chart we see a down trend to 10600
on the monthly chart we can see a down trend to 9000
Forecast 2011 are still progressing
with continuous selling on the Dowjones,
2011
so far into 2011--- penny shares getting momentum..keep in mind that a run is not for ever
i am selling in this momentum
.. cheers and book my hollydays sking in China...
strict discipline must apply in this game
Cramer's Dow 30 Prediction: 13K and Beyond
Here's my annual analysis, case by case, that adds up to a target of 13,365 for the Dow Jones next year -- a 16% gain from current levels and a bountiful return -- based on a prognostication of the performance of the individual members of the venerable index.
Although I am a bottoms up guy, as a backdrop I am presuming a resumption of decent U.S. growth courtesy of the Fed -- call it 3% to 4% -- continued worldwide growth, a stable to slight decline in the dollar and a decent rise in rates (30-year Treasury bond going to 4.8%) as befitting a return to economic health.
Still, I don't want to overplay the macro hand. I am seeing these terrific gains on the Dow from the players within, not the trends outside. Here's how I get to my 13,365 target.
1. Alcoa (AA_): Let's start off with a bang. With just a $14 billion market cap -- and being the leading independent producer of a metal that will be in intense demand in 2011 because of boosted aerospace, autos and power plant production -- Alcoa will be hard-pressed to stay independent. Earnings have been depressed throughout the downturn, but the cash flow has picked up, courtesy the excellent stewardship of CEO Klaus Kleinfeld. If the company stands alone its stock can advance and get a 12 multiple, a slight discount to many of the cyclical stocks in the average, and that would put it at $18. But I think it gets bought out at $22, a fabulous return and perhaps my favorite in the whole average.
2. American Express (AXP_) just doesn't get the rewards it deserves in this market with people constantly trying to lump it in with slow growth banks or Visa (V_) and MasterCard (MA_) which have been whacked by the Fed because of debit fees. American Express is a credit card company with fewer and fewer defaults and excellent growth, especially with the rebounding world economy, and it should be treated as such. I see the company earning $4 next year and deserving a 15 multiple, more in keeping with double-digit growth companies. Call it $60.
and more
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10953794/1/cramers-dow-30-prediction-13k-and-beyond.html
Will The Dow Hit A Record High In 2011?
Posted by admin on December 18th, 2010
Stocks End Up Dow Hits Highest Level in 2 Years -- CNBC Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 -- DailyFinance U.S. Stocks Retreat on Valuations, Surge in Treasury Yields -- BusinessWeek Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 -- AP News Wire. Vick says he would like a pet dog, renewing debate -- FOX News Spencer Hawesapos 18 points help 76ers win on the road -- The bad news, and it really wasnapost all that bad, was that the Dow Jones industrials INDU. so, find yerself a swaggering, poker-playing, high quality pro who has a track record of beating this “rigged game.” there are plenty of us out there. NEW YORK AP — Could the Dow set a record high next year That question would have seemed crazy early last year when fear and panic enveloped the stock market and the Dow Jones industrial average plunged to 6,547 on March 9. Many investors thought it. WIS is South Carolina’s news leader, covering local news, weather, sports and community information in Columbia, Lexington, Sumter, Orangeburg, Newberry, Winnsboro and the rest of the Midlands. Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 -- KTTC Rochester, Austin. Could the Dow set a record high next year. Many analysts forecast stock prices will rise further in 2011, but are skeptical that the Dow will set a record so soon.. Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011. Many analysts forecast stock prices will rise further in 2011, but are skeptical that the Dow will set a record so soon.. Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 -- WIS News 10. Confidence among U.S. small business owners continued to rise, reaching a three-year high last month, according to the National. oil inventories Honeywellaposs 2011 outlook and Atlanta Fed Pres Lockhart speaks. THURSDAY: Housing starts, jobless claims.
NEW YORK — Could the Dow set a record high next year Friday, December 17, 2010. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up about 48 points. Unemployment rose to 9.8 percent in November, a seven-month high. Itaposs exceeded 9 percent for a record stretch of 19 months. And some economists predict it could climb to 10 percent by early. Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 STAN CHOE -- 12/17/2010 11:46:15 AM. Could the Dow set a record high next year Could the Dow set a record high next year. Many analysts forecast stock prices will rise further in 2011, but are skeptical that the Dow will set a record so soon.. Will The Dow Hit A Record High In 2011 -- Project Economy News. While the weekend box-office was the second lowest grossing of the year, a handful of art-house films in limited release show theres potential sleeper hits in the making. following its 2010 record-setting opening weekend average 88,863 the. Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 -- Will the Dow hit a record high in 2011 Fed cites unemployment in sticking with bond plan -- Cleveland Plain Dealer LONDON -Dow Jones- Aggreko PLC AGK. Trading in International Power Projects improved in the fourth quarter, with the record order-intake secured in the first half now generating revenues, and the quarter also saw a much reduced off-hire rate On an. New Jersey will get the Rocketsapos first-round draft pick in 2012, the Lakersapos first-round pick in 2011 and current Lakers shooting guard. but Hawes put in a rebound and Holiday hit a high-arcing 3-pointer to push the lead to 68-60. After a basket by. Dow up 42 Oracle, RIM results cheer Street -- MSN Money Will Black Swan and The Kings Speech Break Out Big -- Wall Street Journal
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Dow's Next Upside Target 13,000-13,500: Charts
Published: Thursday, 30 Dec 2010 | 3:39 AM ET
Text Size 
By: Daryl Guppy
CNBC Contributor
CNBC Contributor
U.S. markets are looking to end off the year on a positive note, hitting new closing-highs on Wednesday, as investors remain optimistic about the prospects for equities in 2011. But how much further can this uptrend continue for?
When a market has been moribund for so long, any movement, no matter how small, takes on additional significance. The Dow's [.DJIA 11787.38 
55.48 (+0.47%)] rise above 11,600 is a move towards the upper part of a sideways trading range that dominated the markets in 2010.
55.48 (+0.47%)] rise above 11,600 is a move towards the upper part of a sideways trading range that dominated the markets in 2010. It is driven by changes in money supply conditions created by the latest round of quantitative easing and some suggest this does not reflect any fundamental change in economic conditions.
The move from the trading band low at 9,600 to 11,600 looks an impressive 20 percent but it hides a generally weaker performance of the market when measured against Asian markets.
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CLICK ON GRAPH TO ENLARGE Dow Jones Industrial Average |
Year-on-year the Dow's rise is around 10 percent from 10,500 to 11,600. This raises some questions about the strength of the move beyond 11,600. The move to 11,600 is interesting from a technical perspective. It has been a long time coming, but 11,600 is the projection target for the inverted head and shoulder pattern that developed between November 2008 and July 2009. It has taken almost two years for this long term chart pattern to play out.
A number of European markets in particular developed similar inverted head and shoulder patterns around the same time in 2008 to 2009. However these markets have reached their projection targets much earlier and have since developed new patterns of breakout behavior. These markets, including the DAX [.GDAXI 7075.7 0.59 (+0.01%)] and the FTSE [.FTSE 6002.07 
-21.81 (-0.36%)] provide some indication of how the Dow may develop as it tests the inverted head and shoulder target level at 11,600.
0.59 (+0.01%)] and the FTSE [.FTSE 6002.07 -21.81 (-0.36%)] provide some indication of how the Dow may develop as it tests the inverted head and shoulder target level at 11,600.Additionally, the breakout from a broad sideways consolidation band is not unique to the Dow. This same pattern of behavior is seen in many European and Asian markets, and in a number of commodity markets, including oil. The width of the trading consolidation band is used to project the next upside target. With the Dow, this is between 13,000 and 13,500. The variation is due to the imprecise support level created at the lower edge of the Dow's consolidation area.
Either of these targets suggests a reasonable level of return for the Dow, but they ignore one important feature associated with the achievement of the inverted head and shoulder pattern targets. The continuation of the uptrend after the target has been achieved is not guaranteed. The market may move sideways, using the 11,600 level as a support level and moving slowly towards the new trading band projection targets. The breakout above 11,600 does not necessarily make for strong trending behavior.
This remains a stock pickers market rather than an investors market. In 2010 the market added, at best, 20 percent. Over the same period Baidu [BIDU 107.73 1.48 (+1.39%)] added around 130 percent. Finding stocks that display consistent strength is the challenge for 2011. Their strength may be aided by a tepid Dow breakout above 11,600. Traders will look for rally and retreat behavior in the index as the 11,600 level is tested as support and as the market probes towards trading band targets near 13,000 or 13,500.
1.48 (+1.39%)] added around 130 percent. Finding stocks that display consistent strength is the challenge for 2011. Their strength may be aided by a tepid Dow breakout above 11,600. Traders will look for rally and retreat behavior in the index as the 11,600 level is tested as support and as the market probes towards trading band targets near 13,000 or 13,500. Daryl Guppy is a trader and author of Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders –www.guppytraders.com . He is a regular guest on CNBC's Asia Squawk Box. He is a speaker at trading conferences in China, Asia, Australia and Europe.
If you would like Daryl to chart a specific stock, commodity or currency, please write to us at ChartingAsia@cnbc.com. He is now also on Facebook.
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http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/marc-faber-on-investing-opportunities.html