2013 Markets outlook DowJones
WILL MARKET RECOVER FOR END FY 2013
The Gold Report: As you noted in your last interview with The Gold Report in February, Goldman Sachs was predicting that gold would to go down to $1,200/ounce ($1,200/oz) in several years, and now “Dr. Doom,” Nouriel Roubini, says it’s going to $1,000/oz. What’s your view?
Chen Lin: In the near term, I think gold is being controlled by the paper market on Wall Street, which is unfortunate. However, I’m still bullish for the long run.
DOW JONES WATCH FORECASTS
Best Six Months for Stock Market Are Underway Says Hirsch
According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, November is the beginning of the stock market's strongest six-month period. The "Best Six Months Switching Strategy" goes like this: Invest in the Dow and/or S&P 500 between November 1 and April 30 each year, then switch into safer fixed income assets in May.
"We found that most of the market's gains are made from November to April, whereas you either go down or are flat from May through October; hence the sell in May and go away [strategy]," says Jeff Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac.
Historically, there's a soft period from May through October, as seen in STA's chart below.
"We like to buy in October and get ourselves sober, even though we didn't get our trigger this year because the market was vacillating quite a bit," says Hirsch. He uses a MACD indicator as a trigger for buy and sell moves. Using the MACD, the DJIA's Best Six Months rises to an average gain of 9.3% versus a loss of 1.2% during the Worst Six Months.
On average as seen in the chart below, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 7.5% during the Best Six Month period since 1950, versus 0.3% rise during the Worst 6 Months.
"Last year everyone was bearish — I was one of the lone bulls on the Street. I was really happy with our buy signal," says Hirsch. "This year I'm not so confident because the market technically is struggling against resistance; there are a lot of issues, there's a post-election year coming up, there's fiscal cliffs. So we're going in with tighter stops with our trades this year."
Needless to say, November is off to a very weak start with the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down over 4% month-to-date. Hirsch has already warned of risk in 2013 based on the election cycle and historical weakness when an incumbent president is re-elected.
"Again, we're at the sour spot of the four-year [presidential election] cycle," he admits. "We'll make our trades, but we'll be a lot more cautious and keep the stops a lot tighter instead of leaving it wide open here."
If this is as good as it gets, maybe that's a sound warning for the year ahead. How are you positioning for 2013? Let us know in the comment section below or visit us on Facebook!
More From Breakout:
SPECIAL REPORT THE BULL ARE BACK 2012
DOW SIGNALLING A TOP 12800 CORRECTION
STOCK ALERT
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux ... money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected'
~G. Soros
The biggest risk in life is not to have one.
Investment Watch Blog
Australia Penny Shares companies are managed by the worth CROOKS of the system,, most of it wheeling and dealings to clean the holders?? most of them are INsiders/ traders.. ACCOUNTANTS AND CORPORATES LAWYERS,, protected by ASIC
Shame on them >> TRADE WITH THEM >> DO NOT HOLD THEM>> i call them professionals criminals THEY ARE DESTROYING PEOPLE WEALTH
AS 4 November 2011 MARKETS SENTIMENTS BULLISH see updated forecasts chart... DOW TESTING 11400 support, Warning
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TARGET DOW 10400 - SP500 900 long term
go the dragon
TAKE NOTE THAT THE mARKET SEEMS TO CONSOLIDATE FOR A TURN ??? bIOTECHS SEEMS TO WARM UP??
accumulation on the penny shares,, be aware of consolidation
our chart updates support 1
CHARTING STUDIES
dow new chart formation warning
BEWARE OF CORPORATE CON MAN AT WORK
elliott wave blog
THE ART OF STEALING FROM SHARE HOLDERS
just playing with your money
link to ART OF STOCKS MANIPULATIONS
Quote of the day: note that in this market company directors keep very low profiles?? 6 months ago they were flooding the market machine with intentions??
signs of the time?
Dowjones future forecast
ASX TAX SELLING ending soon Watch the bounce
we may have a surge?
technical speculator page
VIX reverse sharpely
TAX adjustements done??.Happy New Year?
2012 could be a slow start /pending DowJones correction?
the words are Correction.. recession ... and fears of Depression
MOST DIRECTORS ARE ROBBERS ON ASX
Dowjones in correction mode.>> next support?? correction = recession = depression ?? 3 support scenario possible?
Astute accounting taking place
link to cycles theory
WARNING SIGNALS GIVEN ON THE RISING FLAG (3 months periode)
Quote of the moment??
Buying time is upon us.... Everone is getting more and more fearful which leads me to think we are getting closer to this downturns bottom. I'll be buying more as funds free up.
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Muslims movements around the world
on both side the system did create a legal way to abuse the system
Australia was the Lucky Country, Politics and Politicians are to be blame
for the imbalance of the late immigration scams ??? remember the great education scheme for foreign student????
all scams
governement responsible
wealth and stability of the world rely on AMERICA
America sneeze = the world catch the flu
that an old saying...
will they survive??
the battle is on
i do strongly believe in American imperialism.
ELECTION YEARS CHART
Chart of the Day |
Notes:
- Where's the Dow headed? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the Barron's recommended charts only available at Chart of the Day Plus
Why China Risks Repeating an American Disaster Monday, 27th June 2011 Melbourne, Australia By Kris Sayce
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............................................................................................................................................................................. In today’s Money Morning: Low debt and high savings... Australia in the wrong corner... Production to consumerism - and the risks involved... Uranium, gas or something else... Why China Risks Repeating an American Disaster "The strength of the real-estate market directly affects the construction, steel, concrete, power and appliance industries. In all, about 50% of China’s GDP is linked to the fate of its real-estate market, according to Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green." - Wall Street Journal The debt problems in Greece are nothing compared to the China Problem. At first glance the numbers suggest China is in top shape. Take this chart we found: Low debt, high savings In terms of debt levels you want to be in the lower part of the chart. That’s where China is. Where you don’t want to be is the top right corner... that’s where the Anglo-Saxons are - Australia, the U.S. and the U.K.And for savings rates, you want to be towards the top... again, where China is (although Singapore is in the best position at top right). And the spot to avoid is the bottom part of the chart... again where the U.S. and U.K. are. And where Australia is headed. But here’s the problem... China only has low debt levels because Western economies have high debt levels. And China only has a high savings rate because Western economies have a low savings rate. Which is fine... for a while. But when your customers run out of credit and can no longer spend, what does a business do? How to become a consumer nation The argument in the mainstream is that China will just start buying its own stuff. It will become a consumer nation.But how will it do that? At the end of 2010, China had the equivalent of USD$2.85 trillion in foreign reserves. Of that, USD$1.16 trillion was invested in U.S. government bonds. In other words about 40% of China’s wealth is held in U.S. dollar denominated debt. The problem for China is if it wants to become a consumer nation, it needs to get rid of those U.S. dollars. And that’s China’s biggest problem. First up, selling U.S. dollars will devalue those it still holds. It’d mean China getting less Yuan for their dollars than they’d hoped. And that means less cash for consumers. The idea that becoming a consumer nation is the solution is ridiculous. As with most poorly thought out solutions, it only appears to work in the short term. Think back to what we said earlier. If a major customer stops spending, what will that do for a bus iness? That’s right, it spells trouble. Even if previous spending had built a big cash reserve. So unless the business can find new customers it will need to use savings. According to the mainstream, that’s just what China needs - start spending everything it has saved. But think about that in a business perspective again. Would it really make sense for a company to blow the budget on expenses at the same time as it lost its main customer? Of course not. Not if the company wants to remain viable in the long run. What it really needs is to find more customers. Why China will face the same problems as the U.S. For instance, think how consumption policy has worked in the past. It’s exactly what the U.S. started doing 50 years ago. It started buying everything it produced... and then more... using credit.Even being the world’s largest manufacturer wasn’t enough to save it, be cause it consumed more than it exported. But that’s exac tly the policy China is set to follow. And it’s being cheered on by the West. Having run out of customers, instead of cutting back on production, the central planners and Westerners think the best idea is to have China spend its savings. As you can see from the charts above, there’s plenty to spend. But when you combine falling exports with higher spending, it won’t take long for China’s position to reverse. What will that mean for Australia? Funnily enough, it could mean Australia’s status as the "Lucky Country" gets one more stroke of luck. It could mean China’s demand for resources continues as it becomes a consumer rather than an exporter nation. But don’t jump for joy yet. Even if the Chinese consumer fills the gap left by Western consumers, the transition won’t be smooth. Yes, China may keep the Australian economy afloat a while longer, but you shouldn’t fall fo r the mainstream spin that it’ll be painless. Cheers. Kris Sayce Money Morning Australia A Threat? Or an Opportunity? By Aaron Tyrrell, Editor, Money Morning Nine out of 10 households have been promised tax cuts, pension increases and a boost in family payments to help cope with the increased cost of living under the carbon tax. Nine out of 10 households?! That means somewhere around eight million taxpayer-funded bribes will be handed out... to Aussies with a household income of less than $150,000... to cover the cost of the new tax... No wonder poll results in the Sydney Morning Herald reveal the carbon tax is more hated than ever. Now you should take poll results with a fistful of salt. But it doesn’t matter. The carbon tax WILL come in, in some form, no matter who has the powe r. So it’s time to stop griping and start looking for opportunities. According to Diggers & Drillers editor, Dr Alex Cowie, uranium stocks could be back on the up as we move into the second half of this year. Why? Well, all the fuss about these carbon belchers could leave the door ajar for uranium to trumpet its case as the clean, green and reliable alternative to dirty coal. (You can read what Alex had to say in full in the Daily Reckoning here.) Although it may take a while to shake off the Fukushima blues. If you want an example of how uranium stocks have fared since the Japan crisis, the following three stocks have dropped an average 45.53%: PepinNini Minerals Ltd (ASX:PNN), U3O8 Ltd (ASX:UT O) and Thundelarra Exploration Ltd (ASX:THX). Are any of them any good? We don’t know. But they’re cheap. The priciest will set you back less than 30 cents a share. Although Australian Wealth Gameplan editor, Dan Denning would argue there’s good reason for that. In an advanced note to the special report he’s due to release, Dan said the Age of Oil will give way to the Golden Age of Gas. That seems to make sense. Gas is proven and compared to nuclear energy, low cost. Or maybe you should forget energy and start looking for other opportunities. Money Morning reader, Geoff W. wrote in last week to point out property developers could be set to double their money at a carbon price of just $10 a tonne. I’m still looking into this story - it seems to be buried under piles of clauses, bullet points and addendums in pa rliamentary papers - and will let you know what I find... More to come... but it wouldn’t be the first time property developers have come up with an excuse for why property must double! Aaron Tyrrell Editor, Money Morning PS. Dan’s special report on oil, natural gas and the Middle East is due any day. Keep an eye on your inbox over the next few days. In our view it could be the most important piece of research you read this year... Related Articles Why You Shouldn't Buy China Which Commodity is Set to Take Off Next? Is It Time to Buy This Unloved Energy Play? The Petro Dollar Standard in Crisis Why I'm Flying the Flag for China From the Archives... Why This is a New Golden Age for Energy Stocks 2011-06-24 - Kris Sayce The RBA Strums While the Australian Economy Burns 2011-06-23 - Kris Sayce Beware the Sub-Prime Food Market 2011-06-22 - Kris Sayce Is OPEC Following Michael Corleone's Advice?< /strong> 2011-06-21 - Kris Sayce The Depression You Better Hope We Have 2011-06-20 - Kris Sayce For editorial enquiries and feedback, email moneymorning@moneymorning.com.au | .......................................................
....................................................... ....................................................... "Multiple chances to spin grubstakes into 'dream hauls' in the time it takes to need a new haircut..." Slips tream Trader Murray Dawes is going to deliver a whole new calibr e of short-term, higher-risk, greater-return trades on TOP of his regular trades. You should only trade these alerts if you have a very high risk tolerance. To learn more about how Murray is going for triple-digit gains inside three months, watch this video presentation. ....................................................... ....................................................... The secret deal that rig ged global silver prices - and one Aussie stock set to benefit... How a silver price manipulation scandal, a hit-and-run accident and a courageous whistleblower have handed you the chance to capitalise on the silver boom - before prices surge again in 2011. For full details click here. ....................................................... |
Australia pension and superfund
The great Australian superannuation fraud
By Alex Messenger
16 August 2010
Returns on Australian compulsory superannuation savings, a scheme sold to workers as a substitute for the old-age pension, have barely surpassed the rate of inflation over the last 14 years, according to official figures compiled by the government-funded Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC). These figures are proof that the superannuation system, which Labor and the trade unions proclaim as their “proudest achievement”, is one of the greatest swindles in Australian history.
According to the ABC’s compilation of figures released annually by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, the average annual return on superannuation investments between 1997 and 2009 was just 3 percent, as compared to an inflation rate across the same period of 2.8 percent. Taken over past decade, superannuation funds have returned less than the inflation rate—meaning that workers would have been better off simply putting their money in the bank.
The figures are partly explained by market volatility, especially the huge losses during the initial stages of the global financial crisis, and by poor investment decisions on the part of superannuation funds managers. Just as importantly though, the risible returns are all that is left over once investment advisors and fund managers, including trade union bureaucrats, take their hefty slice. A staggering $A17 billion in fees—or $48 million per day—is siphoned off each year from workers’ savings. As the ABC pointed out, this sum alone would be sufficient to fund the entire Australian old age pension system. Yet none of the major parties—Labor, Liberal or the Greens—has commented on these extraordinary figures during the current election campaign, much less on the question of old age incomes more generally.
Compulsory superannuation, introduced by the Keating Labor government in 1992, involved an obligatory employer contribution of 3 percent of each worker’s wage to superannuation funds, which would then be invested in Australian securities, especially the stock market. The chief aim was to transfer a large pool of capital into Australian investment banks, which would then be in a position to punch above their weight on the global stage. In other words, there is a direct link between Labor’s super system, the refusal of successive governments to increase the poverty-level old-age pension and the increasing financialisation of the Australian economy.
The trade unions were involved from the outset. The scheme was a key plank of the “Accord” reached by trade unions and the Labor government to suppress real wages, boost “international competitiveness” and end worker militancy. Union leaders are now involved in the management of superannuation funds worth billions of dollars and thus have a direct stake in ensuring the ongoing implementation of pro-market policies to boost the financial markets.
By 1996 the employer contribution rate had risen to 9 percent. However, with the assistance and support of the unions, this levy was compensated by the abolition or reduction of wage increases. In other words, the compulsory employer contributions were, in effect, paid by the workers themselves.
By 2010, the Australian superannuation pool had risen to $1.17 trillion, making Australia the largest per capita holder of superannuation funds in the world and the fourth largest in gross terms. The figure is equivalent to 100 percent of GDP. Superannuation funds own 26 percent of shares on the Australian stock exchange. As part of Labor’s original deal with the unions, about a quarter of the superannuation pool is controlled by the unions in so-called “industry” superfunds.
In this year’s budget, handed down in May, Labor promised the unions and the finance industry that it would increase compulsory superannuation contributions from 9 to 12 percent of wages by 2019. In line with the current model, then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd invited employers, at the time of the budget, to take the new super impost “into account when negotiating future wage agreements”. According to Labor’s estimates, a further 3 percent increase in super contributions will add $85 billion to Australia’s superannuation pool in the next decade, and more than $500 billion by 2037. The stakes for Australian capitalism in maintaining and expanding the current superannuation system are therefore huge. Finance sector research company Rice Warner estimates that within 15 years, total superannuation holdings will have increased to $A2.7 trillion.
According to Jeff Breshnahan, head of superannuation research firm SuperRatings, the bulk of the $17 billion from compulsory super investments—about $9 billion—goes to well-paid investment managers, whose salaries are, even by finance industry standards, “incredibly high”. As Mike Rafferty, a researcher at the University of Sydney points out, “average wage and salary earners…are subsidising massive salaries that go to fund managers.”
Moreover, fund managers receive these huge salaries regardless of whether their investment decisions increase or reduce workers savings over the course of a given year. Their pay is calculated not on return rates, but on the size of funds under management. Because 9 percent of workers’ wages will roll into the share market regardless of market performance, management salaries are guaranteed. Further, as the ABC pointed out, the vast bulk of the $1.17 trillion super pool is made up of contributions, not of returns on investments. Contributions have been boosted by a series of tax concessions engineered to make superannuation a superficially attractive investment for higher income workers. Prior to the eruption of the global financial crisis in 2007-08, tax incentives introduced by the Howard Coalition government caused a sudden exodus of household assets into super funds. Some $381 billion, about a third of the total $1.17 trillion super pool, was added in the years 2005 to 2007.
The most powerful indictment of the compulsory superannuation system is abundant proof that most workers will still be dependent on the poverty-level pension in their retirement. In other words, despite contributing 9 percent of their wages to Australian superannuation funds, and thus the stock market, every week for the past 15 years, most Australians still have superannuation accounts of less than $70,000. As former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd admitted earlier this year, “a low-income earner on half of average weekly ordinary time earnings [that is, on $31,000 per year] would expect to be 80 percent reliant on the age pension after retirement.”
The solution put forward by the superannuation industry, government and the unions is not to increase the aged pension—which has continued to fall in real terms over the last 20 years—but to increase the retirement age for eligibility for the pension. Under plans unveiled by Labor in the 2009 budget, the Australian government will increase the pension age from 65 to 67 in 2019 —the first increase in the male retirement age since aged pensions were introduced in 1909. Given business demands for budget austerity, the proposed change could well be brought forward. Treasurer Wayne Swan said earlier this year that unless the pension age was increased substantially, society could not afford to look after its elderly: “The blue-collar workforce is impacted upon by the stress on their bodies over time, I openly acknowledge that. But what we have to do is go back to basics here… if we don’t make these changes, the system may not be viable.” Given that the amount siphoned off in superannuation fees could pay for pensions, the statement is a complete lie. Swan’s comments underscore the degree to which he, the Labor government and the whole political establishment is in the thrall of big business—more specifically, of the powerful finance sector—that participated enthusiastically in the worldwide speculative orgy that precipitated the current global economic crisis.
Click here for full coverage of the SEP 2010 election campaign
Authorised by N. Beams, 307 Macquarie St, Liverpool, NSW 2170
Australia famous Stockmarket celebritiies
Every stock has a heart
the market never lies..
the market anticipate... react...decide on
insiders manipulations protected by corporates laws,
with intentions and understanding of their iundertaking...
in many cases accounting at work???
remember every stock got a project, or the smell of a project???
most of the projects are not feasible, or never existed??
cant not be proved unfortunately
you have to decide who tell a lie
Financial strategies 2012
all markets in correction mode
looking and analyzing trend line - support line - cycles projections
extreme caution needed when entering a position
watching the market very closely..
the pennyshares seems to run..
many stocks approaching top of cycle
will sell into the momentum
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED for 2011
DISTRIBUTION TIME ?????
Commentary: While Tuesday's( firts week january ) down day in the markets was relatively tame as far as the major indexes were concerned, many former market leaders suffered a high volume selloff. Even though one distribution day isn’t usually enough to change the overall trend in a stock, it does shock current market participants and will likely have a residual effect moving forward. Often when a stock suffers a violent down day, the low will act as a resistance level as worried market participants begin to sell on any bounces back into the selloff day's price range.
Why the Bullish Forecasts for 2011 Might Hit a Few Snags
The Dow has advanced for seven consecutive weeks, but has gained only about 100 points per week during that timeframe. So the recent price action does not feel over-the-top exuberant. Instead, it feels steady, reliable…almost predictable.
Everyone knows the market will go up next week, just like it went up last week…and the week before that. This seeming predictability is simply a different strain of irrational exuberance. When the market seems as soothing as a Corona Beer commercial, the “fear instinct” goes dormant. Investors forget to worry.
But a Corona beer commercial isn’t reality. And neither is a tranquil, friendly stock market.
Nevertheless, most Wall Street strategists have been falling all over one another to proclaim their bullish forecasts for 2011. Goldman Sachs strategist, David Kostin, is looking for a 17% rally in the S&P 500 Index this year, while most of his Wall Street counterparts are expecting at least low double-digit gains.
We hope these hopeful prognostications come to fruition. In general, up is much better than down. But it’s a long year ahead and the road to gains may not be as direct and “predictable” as the Dow’s recent performance might suggest.
The market might encounter a few bumps along the way. In fact, David Rosenberg, economist for Canada’s Gluskin Sheff, expects the market to encounter a few bumps very soon. “Signs of excessive exuberance abound,” says Rosenberg.
In particular:
- The VIX index, at 17.5x, is back to where it was last April. Remember what happened next.
- Investors Intelligence bullish sentiment is back to where it was at the all-time market highs of October 2007.
- The non-commercial accounts on the CME have recently opened up a considerable net speculative long position in equities, particularly the QQQ’s (NASDAQ stocks).
- Market leadership is narrowing, as Bob Farrell has been busy pointing out.
- The number of short-selling positions slid 2.2% in the first half of December on the NYSE; and by 2.8% on the NASDAQ. The bears are running scared.
- As Kelly Evans asserted last week, the AAII investor sentiment poll has been above its historical norm now for 17 weeks running – the longest stretch in six years.
- Since July, margin debt has exploded by 16% to $274 billion, the most since September 2008 when people still thought we were in a soft landing.
- Equity mutual funds and ETF’s took in $24 billion in December (TrimTabs data)… The last time we saw retail inflows like this into equities was last March…just ahead of a 17% correction.
Eric Fry
for The Daily Reckoning
Eric Fry
Eric J. Fry, Agora Financial’s Editorial Director, has been a specialist in international equities for nearly two decades. He was a professional portfolio manager for more than 10 years, specializing in international investment strategies and short-selling. Following his successes in professional money management, Mr. Fry joined the Wall Street-based publishing operations of James Grant, editor of the prestigious Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Working alongside Grant, Mr. Fry produced Grant's International and Apogee Research — institutional research products dedicated to international investment opportunities and short selling.Mr. Fry subsequently joined Agora Inc., as Editorial Director. In this role, Mr. Fry supervises the editorial and research processes of numerous investment letters and services. Mr. Fry also publishes investment insights and commentary under his own byline as Editor of The Daily Reckoning. Mr. Fry authored the first comprehensive guide to investing internationally with American Depository Receipts. His views and investment insights have appeared in numerous publications including Time, Barron's, Wall Street Journal, International Herald Tribune, Business Week, USA Today, Los Angeles Times and Money.
Special Report: Why We Left Wall Street... And How You Can Grab Three FREE Issues of Our Most Important New Service. Learn More...
Read more: Why the Bullish Forecasts for 2011 Might Hit a Few Snags http://dailyreckoning.com/why-the-bullish-forecasts-for-2011-might-hit-a-few-snags/#ixzz1AjKXmQvj
PREDICTIONS 2011
The investment banking powerhouse sees the S&P 500 (INDEX: .SPX) gaining nearly 25 percent to a level of 1450 in the next 12 months, fueled by strong corporate profits, easy monetary policies and an improving U.S. economy.
Goldman (NYSE:GS - News) sees stocks gaining as the U.S. economic growth accelerating from 2.5 to 4 percent by the end of 2012, but says investors will continue to have doubt. (Watch comments by Goldman's Chief U.S. Investment Strategist David Kostin in the video clip later in this story.)
"Despite these many positives, the equity investing landscape is hard to decipher," Goldman's U.S. investment strategy team writes in its 2011 U.S. equity forecast, which is headlined "Easy Money, Hard Market."
Investors remain understandably skeptical about positive economic data, Goldman says, because the improvement is coming from a fairly low base. But the strategists argue with strong corporate balance sheets, low inflation and interest rates that "the path of earnings growth has rarely been smoother."
Goldman is recommending its clients increase their investments in cyclical sectors. It continues to overweight technology, and has raised its outlook on energy and financials to overweight from neutral.
Goldman also recommends investors underweight defensive sectors like health care, consumer staples and utilities.
Long U.S. Bank Stocks
Goldman's global investment team rates U.S. Large Cap Commercial Banks among its "Top Trades for 2011." The firm expects financial sector earnings to grow 24 percnet, with the economic recovery leading to improving loan demands and credit trends for the big banks. It also believes the large cap banks will get back to paying dividends in 2011.
The firm recommends clients gain exposure to the sector through the KBW Bank Index (Toronto:BKX.TO - News) or SPDR ETF based on the index (NYSEArca:KBE - News).
Commodities: Gold, Oil Higher in 2011
Goldman believes low U.S. interest rates will continue to underpin the rally in commodities like gold. The firm expects the precious metal futures to climb to $1,690 an ounce by the end of 2011 and continue to move higher.
But the firm believes prices will likely peak at $1,750 an ounce in 2012, as the U.S. recovery will see interest rates move higher.
Goldman's commodities strategists also see oil futures rising to $105 dollars a barrel in 2011, and demand improving along with the U.S. economy. The firm notes, "Energy is historically the best performing sector when the ISM is above 50, which seems increasingly likely given strong October ISM and our US economists upgrade to their 2011 growth outlook."
Currencies: Top Trade, Bad Call
Among the risks Goldman sees for 2011 is moderating growth in China, as Beijing tries to reign in inflation.
While its economic teams saw the improvement in U.S. growth lagging emerging markets in 2010, Goldman strategists believe the trend has reversed over the last six months, "with our US economics team now more constructive on domestic growth, but our China economists expecting monetary tightening through increases in interest rates and reserve requirements over the next three to six months."
One of the firm's top trades for 2011 involves shorting the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan exchange. The firm argues low rates in the U.S. will keep the dollar lower, while China will have to let its currency rise next year, as it undertakes policies to control growth. "Rising external political pressure on the CNY from the US and other countries, as well as the threat of escalating trade tensions, expose China's dependence on exports. More gradual CNY appreciation would help alleviate these tensions."
While most of Goldman's 2010 predictions on the U.S. stock market, commodities prices and economic growth have generally proven right on the money, its crystal ball was much more cloudy when it came to some key currency calls.
One of Goldman's top trades for 2010 proved a big loser. The firm's currency strategists recommended shorting the New Zealand dollar and going long the British pound, saying at the time, "We are more bullish on Sterling, linked to a stronger cyclical momentum in response to a large easing in financial conditions."
But the Kiwi has been strong performer this year on the strength of the country's rising commodity prices. The analyst who made that call reportedly apologized to clients in a recent note, saying it may have results in losses of more 12 percent.
Even Babe Ruth never batted a thousand.
When Goldman says go long that means they are short.
for more go to the link
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/Goldman-Sachs-2011-Forecast-cnbc-4210599228.html?x=0&.v=1
PENNY SHARES ARE MORE FUNS
one. Penny Stocks and shares are a penny for any reason.
Although we all dream about committing inside the subsequent Microsoft or the subsequent House Depot, the truth is, the odds of you finding that when in a decade achievement story are slim. These firms are either beginning out and bought a shell organization mainly because it was less costly than an IPO, or they basically do not have a company program compelling enough to justify expense banker’s funds for an IPO. This doesn’t make them a poor expense, but it ought to make you be realistic concerning the type of business that you simply are investing in.
a couple of. Dealing Volumes
Search for a consistent high amount of shares being traded. Searching in the average amount may be misleading. If ABC trades one million shares today, and does not trade for that rest with the week, the daily average will appear to be 200 000 shares. So that you can get in and out at an acceptable rate of return, you may need consistent amount. Also take a look at the number of trades per day. Is it 1 insider promoting or purchasing? Liquidity should be the very first thing to look at. If there’s no volume, you will wind up holding “dead money”, where the only way of marketing shares is always to dump at the bid, which will place more promoting pressure, resulting in an even reduce sell cost.
3. Does the organization know how to produce a profit?
Although its not unusual to see a commence up company run at a loss, its essential to take a look at why they are losing funds. Is it manageable? Will they’ve to look for further financing (resulting in dilution of one’s shares) or will they’ve to seek a joint partnership that favors the other company?
If your business knows how to produce a profit, the organization can use that cash to grow their business, which increases shareholder value. You have to complete some investigation to locate these companies, but whenever you do, you lower the chance of a loss of one’s capital, and improve the odds of a much higher return.
4. Have an entry and exit strategy – and stick to it.
Penny stocks and shares are volitile. They will rapidly move up, and move down just as rapidly. Bear in mind, should you purchase a inventory at $0.10 and market it at $0.12, that represents a 20% return on your purchase. A a couple of cent decline leaves you having a 20% loss. Many stocks and shares business in this range on a everyday basis. If your purchase cash is $10 000, a 20% reduction is really a $2000 reduction. Do this 5 times and you’re out of funds. Retain your stops close. If you get stopped out, move on to the following opportunity. The industry is telling you some thing, and whether or not you want to admit it or not, its generally greatest to listen.
If your strategy was to sell at $0.12 and it jumps to $0.13, either take the 30% gain, or better still, location your stop at $0.12. Lock within your profits although not capping the upside prospective.
five. How did you find out in regards to the inventory?
Most individuals find out about penny shares through a mailing record. You can find numerous superb penny store newsletters, however, you will find just as several who are pumping and dumping. They, together with insiders, will load up on shares, then start to pump the organization to unsuspecting newsletter subscribers. These subscribers buy although insiders are selling. Guess who wins right here.
Not all newsletters are bad. Having worked inside the industry for your last 8 years, I have seen my share of unscrupulous companies and promoters. Some are paid in shares, at times in restricted shares (an agreement whereby the shares cannot be sold for any predetermined period of time), others in cash.
How you can spot the excellent firms in the poor? Basically subscribe, and track the investments. Was there a legitimate opportunity to create cash? Do they have a track record of providing subscribers with fantastic opportunities? You will start to notice rapidly if you might have subscribed to a good newsletter or not.
A single other tip I would offer you to you isn’t to invest a lot more than 20% of one’s overall portfolio in penny shares. You’re spending to create funds and preserve cash to fight another battle. In case you place as well very much of one’s capital at risk, you increase the odds of losing your capital. If that 20% grows, you’ll have more than adequate funds to create a healthy rate of return. Penny stocks are risky to start with, why place your money more at danger?
You can find more information about canadian stock picks, how to invest penny stocks, and davren penny stocks
The problem with blue chips
‘They are going nowhere. Most of them have cut their dividends. They have massive deficits on their pension funds. They dare not offend the government. They are run by committees. And we all know what that means, don’t we?’‘I think so,’ I replied. ‘But tell me anyway…’
‘Well,’ he went on, ‘Committees are run on what I call the Lowest Common Denominator Principle. Rather than reach a decision based on one person’s unshakeable conviction, they have to make decisions based on whatever low level of knowledge is sufficient to command a majority. Committees are slow to respond and inevitably cautious. As someone once said ‘If Columbus had an advisory committee he would probably still be at the dock.’’
He went on in this vein for quite some time. But he lost me, because I was trying to work something out. Let me tell you what was puzzling me…
Here was a man sounding off about the big companies that inhabit the FTSE 100 share index. His own money, he told us, was all invested in companies that were not big enough to be in this index. His money was invested in smaller, more dynamic companies; companies that have their future ahead of them and not behind them, if you know what I mean.
‘So what you are telling me,’ he said slowly, lifting his head towards his fund manager, ‘is that you can put your own money into the shares of small companies and benefit as they prosper and grow, but you must invest my money in all of these old… has-beens?’
He paused and then added, ‘…and Royal Bank of Scotland, in which I see the value of my shares has fallen by 90%, is considered to be a low risk investment?’
‘That’s right!’ said the fund manager, looking as pleased as Punch. ‘Absolutely! Got it in one!’
And there you have it. The fund manager said it all. Small caps might be seen as “high-risk” – but the potential for decent capital growth is much greater. If you can afford to take on a little higher risk, penny shares are the way to go.
I’m just putting the finishing touches to the August issue of Red Hot Penny Shares. I’ve got three very exciting recommendations this month. One is a way to play the swine flu mania; one’s a resources stock with interests in both coal and uranium; and the last is attempting to solve a major problem in Africa – with potentially huge returns on offer for investors.
Add your name to the Red Hot Penny Shares list today, and you’ll be in time to receive this latest issue when I send it at 5pm on Friday. Click here and scroll to the bottom of the website for full details and my current top opportunities.
Good investing,
CASINO CORNER...
insiders are just passing the chip around,, either friends related or management related ...
most of time they are cashing in the chips on sharesholders hope???
ZURICH AXIOMS ON INVESTMENTS
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as amusements purpose, with no liabilities whatsoever
Max Gunther set forth basic trading principles called The Zurich Axioms:
On Risk:
- Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health - if you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
- Always play for meaningful stakes - if an amount is so small that its loss won’t make any significant difference, then it isn’t likely to bring any significant gains either.
- Resist the allure of diversification.
On Greed:
- Always take your profit too soon.
- Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.
On Hope:
- When the ship starts sinking, don’t pray. Jump.
- Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience several while awaiting a large gain.
On Forecasts:
- Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.
On Patterns:
- Chaos is not dangerous until it starts to look orderly.
- Beware the historian’s trap - it is based on the age-old but entirely unwarranted belief that the orderly repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain situations.
- Beware the chartist’s illusion - it is characteristic of human minds to perceive links of cause and effect where none exist.
- Beware the gambler’s fallacy - there’s no such thing as "Today’s my lucky day" or "I’m hot tonight".
On Mobility:
- Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.
- Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.
- Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view.
On Intuition:
- A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.
- Never confuse a hunch with a hope.
On the Occult:
- If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.
- A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept in its place.
On Optimism & Pessimism:
- Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence mean knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.
On Consensus:
- Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong.
- Never follow speculative fads. Often, the best time to buy something is when nobody else wants it.
On Stubbornness:
- If it doesn’t pay off the first time, forget it.
- Never try to save a bad investment by "averaging down".
On Planning:
- Long-range plans engender the dangerous belief that the future is under control. It is important never to take your own long-range plans or other people’s seriously. In essence these axioms point to the benefit of having an investment strategy and sticking to it, regardless of what other investors say or do. If you don’t have an investment strategy, you could do worse than adopt these principles. However, don’t be afraid to add or subtract ones according to what works for you.
1. Sell the Losers and Let the Winners Run
2. Make Winners Win Big
3. Losers Demand Careful Strategy
4. It Is Better to Average Up Than to Average Down
5. Good Companies Buy Their Own Stock
6. Price Doubling Is Easy at Low Prices
7. Look for Insider Trading
8. Buy Low, Sell High
9. Buy High, Sell Higher
10. Buy on the Rumour, Sell on the News
11. Sell High, Buy Low
12. The Perfect Hedge Is Short against the Box
13. Never Short a Dull Market
14. Never Short the Trend
15. Never Buy a Stock Because It Has a Low Price
16. Beware the 'Penny Stock'
17. Give Stop Orders Wiggle Room
18. Buy the Stock That Splits
19. Instit unions Show Where the Action Is Now
20. Avoid Heavy Positions in Thinly Traded Stocks
21. There Are at Least Two Sides to a Story
22. Follow a Few Stocks Well
23. Be Wary of Stock Ideas from a Neighbour
24. Get Information before You Invest, Not After
25. Never Fight the Tape
26. Heavy Volume, the Price Rises - Light Volume, the Price Falls
27. Buy on Weakness, Sell on Strength
28. It Is Best to Trade 'At the Market'
29. Understand the Types of Orders
30. Order Modifications Might Cause Decay
31. Remember That Others Might Have the Same Idea
32. Use Limit Orders as Insurance
33. Vales can be Found Bottom Fishing
34. Heavily Margind, Heavily Watched
35. Winners keep on Winning
36. Indicators Can Meet Overriding Factors
37. Take a Loss Quickly
38. Beware The Triple Witching Hour
39. Buy on Monday, Sell on Friday
40. Never get Married to the Stock
41. Diversification Is the Key to Portfolio Management
42. Partial Liquidation Might Be the Answer
43. Act Quickly, Study at Leisure
44. Records Can Make Money
45. Fraud is Unpredictable