go the dragon
lows are forecast for march
holding the break out
http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/dailychart20101217pdf-1.pdf
4 years cycles chart Ttheory
http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/fulladts20101124-4yrcyclepdf.pdf
8/3/2010 NIKE!
(No, not the running shoes)
(No, not the running shoes)
Nike is the mythological Greek goddess of VICTORY. Legends say her name was yelled after the battle of Marathon with the Persians. After running the 26.2 miles from the Marathon battlefield to Athens, the runner yelled NIKE!, then collapsed and died.
One month ago at the 7/2/2010 bottom every talking head on the airwaves was in full panic mode calling for a "double dip" recession and much lower prices. (See chart below). The CNBC Clueless Club cited the "death cross", as they called it, of the 50-day moving average crossing the 200-day. The rampant pessimism can be seen by watching this CNBC video recorded on 7/2/2010, www.cnbc.com//id/38058478.
While the CNBC Clueless Club was calling for more selling, Cowan made his first BUY recommendation in 3 months, giving FSLR stock as a good example. His accumulation price was 100-105, and when made public on 7/3 FSLR was trading at 120. FSLR immediately shot up to 140 three weeks later, for a quick profit of 16% from 120, and 40% profit from 100 a month earlier! As is always the case, the position was followed by trailing stops. This lets the market decide when to close the position.
7/3/2010
FSLR stock - A textbook example of stock manipulation.
"Never play another man's game." That was the lesson my father taught me when I was 11 years old and he took my life's savings of $12 by gambling on the game of checkers. He knew he could not beat me at chess so he talked me into gambling on a game I knew nothing about, checkers. After a series of "double or nothing" losses, my $12 belonged to him (which he kept) and his words "never play another man's game" belonged to me.
FSLR stock - A textbook example of stock manipulation.
"Never play another man's game." That was the lesson my father taught me when I was 11 years old and he took my life's savings of $12 by gambling on the game of checkers. He knew he could not beat me at chess so he talked me into gambling on a game I knew nothing about, checkers. After a series of "double or nothing" losses, my $12 belonged to him (which he kept) and his words "never play another man's game" belonged to me.
FSLR (shown below) is a good example of smart money manipulating the public into "playing their game" by issuing buy recommendations as they distribute their stock. FSLR had been in a downtrend since 2007 until it was broken at $112 on high volume on March 26, 2010. The volume indicates that the smart money was buying, yet no "buy recommendations" were issued at that time. A month later FSLR was at 152 and 5 different brokerage firms issued "strong buy" recommendations to the press. Volume spiked as they distributed to the public the stock they bought a month earlier. Prices immediately tumbled all the way back to the trend line at 100.
When you listen to "buy" or "sell" recommendations you are playing another man's game, and you are certain to lose. The charts never lie. All the manipulation is recorded in the price and volume action for the sharp eye to discover.
I have been accumulating FSLR for the past 2 months whenever it drops down to the declining trend line, typically in the 100-105 price range. Upside target is when it returns to the October 2009 gap around 150.
BULL and BEAR MODEL
The Big "Bull/Bear" Picture ...
Investors need models of various time periods to trade the markets. While most investors look at daily and intra-day charts, most avoid focusing on the longer term.
While the markets will fluctuate on a daily and weekly basis, we find that 'Monthly" charts give the best picture of when a Bull market starts and ends.
It is also the best time period for tracking Bear Markets. Not knowing when a Bear market starts and ends can financially hurt investors and wreck havoc on their retirement plans.
Today, we will share our Long Term Bull/Bear Market Model. (It is posted every day on our paid subscriber sites and updated weekly.)
The Long Term Bull/Bear Model for the S&P 500 ...This is a monthly chart for S&P 500. To signal changes in Bull and Bear Market conditions, we use 3 indicators: The MACD, a MACD Histogram, and a Stochastic Oscillator.
What signals has the Bull/Bear Model given?
First, on March 31, 1995, the Model gave the signal for a New Bull Market. That signal lasted until November 20, 2000 when it became time to exit.
And then, On November 20th. 2000, that was the signal for a new Bear Market. That Bear Market lasted until May 31st. 2003, at which time our Model signaled that it was time to exit the Bear Market.
The beginning of our last Bull Market was therefore signaled on May 31st. 2003. That Bull Market remained in force until January 31st. 2008 when a down signal was triggered.
That brings us to where we are now. The current Bear Market on this model started in January of LAST year. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to look at today's chart and see that we are still in a Bear Market.
While this model explores the long term, there are weekly and daily fluctuations in the market. Typically, a Bear Market will have 4 to 5 instances where the S&P will move above our red trend line. That has only happened twice so far. The last occurrence was last September. So it has now been 6 months since we have seen the monthly bars rise above the red trend line.
From a weekly or daily perspective, these periods can give some nice upside trades. As of last Friday, the monthly Stochastic Oscillator showed a very oversold condition. With that condition, it shouldn't be too long before we see a Bear Market rally. Remember that this is a monthly chart that we update weekly .... not a daily chart.
*****Click on this link to get a short instructional video on the indicators and settings that we use: http://www.stocktiming.net/. On that page, click on Seminar #1-How to Predict a Bull or Bear Market.
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