the clock on interest rates is ticking

tomorrow we will see another .25% cut .

RBA must bring our rates under the USA in 2015 ...before the USA starts Raising rates again in 2016.
If We must Follow international rates UP too in Oz to 7%+ again ..= Housing prices crash in 2016 in Oz.

RBA is forced to Raise rates with the USA when they start raising ..in 2016.
RBA raising rates = pushing the AUD back near 90c = RBA disaster .
so must bring the AUD down NOW !!
and get ready for Higher USA rates in 2016 .. raising pressure on RBA to follow them up too thereby pulling the the AUD up with it as Rates in Oz bottom and tick up..

we all rely on interest rate movements

tomorrow we will see another .25% cut .

RBA must bring our rates under the USA in 2015 ...before the USA starts Raising rates again in 2016.
If We must Follow international rates UP too in Oz to 7%+ again ..= Housing prices crash in 2016 in Oz.

RBA is forced to Raise rates with the USA when they start raising ..in 2016.
RBA raising rates = pushing the AUD back near 90c = RBA disaster .
so must bring the AUD down NOW !!
and get ready for Higher USA rates in 2016 .. raising pressure on RBA to follow them up too thereby pulling the the AUD up with it as Rates in Oz bottom and tick up..

US market get ready for a bubble

Excerpted from the December 2013 issue of Robert Prechter's The Elliott Wave Theorist.

---

A “Melt-Up”?

The idea that the stock market will end its rally with a near-vertical advance is appearing in articles, interviews, newsletters, web posts and even emails to EWI. It is especially popular among super-bears who have long recognized that the market is in a bubble.
The problem with this idea is that the Dow and S&P have never blown off. The stock market as a whole has never accelerated upward at a market top. It often accelerates off bottoms, and it always accelerates in the center of a third wave; but it has always lost momentum in a fifth wave relative to the third wave. Predictions for a blow-off defy history.
Commodities are the exception, as Frost and I pointed out in 1978 in Elliott Wave Principle (see text, p.173). In fifth waves of Primary and higher degree, commodities often accelerate upward before reversing. Recent examples include oil in 2008 and silver in 2011. The reason for the difference is that commodities peak on fear, whereas stocks peak on complacency.
Some people are arguing that the stock market has become “commoditized,” and that’s why it’s about to go into a parabolic rise. While we cannot say such an event is outright impossible, it’s never happened. One thing that does happen repeatedly in the stock market is for investors to raise their upside forecasts dramatically at a top. In 1999-2000, at the market’s true peak, books came out calling for Dow 36,000, Dow 40,000 and Dow 100,000. Today’s calls for a melt-up, then, are probably just capitulation to the bullish imperative, a rationalization of optimism. By this means, bears have switched from predicting a collapse to predicting soaring prices. In other words, “Sure, it’s a bubble; but it’s not topping now. In fact, it’s going to start going up faster!” These melt-up predictions are yet another indication that the market is close to a peak in the biggest B wave in recorded history.
This type of capitulation to the trend is different from panic, because it occurs at the opposite end of the psychological spectrum. There is no single word for it. Some people say things such as, “Investors are going to panic into stocks.” But the only people who can buy in panic are those who are short, and they typically constitute a very small percentage of investors. The stock market as a whole does not panic up. But it does occasionally experience a sudden crystallization of optimism. Usually it happens without much near-term price movement; it is the result of a long period of past price movement. We might call this event a cynap, the opposite of panic. When investors’ synapses snap, their opinions become aligned like particles in a magnet. That’s what we have today.
Meanwhile, the stock market has been losing upside momentum for seven months. This is how market tops have always formed, not with a rocket blast but with a subtly slowing ascent. Even in 1929 the market did not blow off; the rise that year was slower than the market’s rise in the second half of 1928. Is this time different? Well, so far it’s exactly the same in that people are saying it will be different.
One or two bears agree with us in being more vocal than ever about the risk in today’s market. Jean-Pierre Louvet of the SafeWealth Group reports on U.S. insolvency, bank woes, deflation and what "cash" means: http://209.10.98.87/SWR-SWMR_First_Quarter_2014.pdf. David Stockman knows it's a bubble and pulls no punches in saying how it will end: http://bastiat.mises.org/2013/11/david-stockman-its-20072008-all-over-again/

Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist delivers unique insights and analysis each month that will help you invest independently.

Published continuously since 1979, Bob Prechter’s Theorist is more than the most trusted Elliott wave letter on the planet; it’s guaranteed to be the most thought-provoking, well-researched and insightful 10 pages you’ll read every month.
Boldly independent and refreshingly contrary, Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist is dedicated to bringing you a "tomorrow's news today" perspective on upcoming market activity and social trends. It exposes commonly held market myths and replaces them with a more accurate depiction of how markets behave and why. Each issue delivers unparalleled insight into the marketplace.
The scope is wide, the content profound and the relevance universal. Each Elliott Wave Theorist pushes the envelope of wave research.
Start your Risk-Free 30-day trial now to receive the full December issue and get immediate access to the just-published January edition of Bob's Theorist >>

are stocks market to get scary in May

the old saying .... sell in  May....

t's been so long since the stock market has done anything except inch higher, making it easy to lose sight of the big picture for stocks. The reality is, the S&P 500 is less than 3% off it's all time highs. Regardless of whether you think this is a buying opportunity or the beginning of the end of the rally, there's still time for traders to adjust their portfolios.

Count Charles Nenner, founder of the Charles Nenner Research Center, as someone who thinks the sell-off has only just begun. In the attached video, Nenner explains that those buying now in anticipation of an improving economy have missed the bus by four years. Good news gets bought once by the smart money, he says. Expectations that the macro picture will improve were a bullish catalyst in 2009. Now it's time to sell the news.

Nenner says his firm took off all of its equity exposure when the S&P was at 1,510 specifically so they "wouldn't have to deal with all this mess." He bases his work on cycles of time and price. From that perspective he says stocks are going to be forming a top in late April. Any market close more than a couple points below 1,544 on the S&P 500 would be an indication to him the market is ready to roll over in a big way. As of mid-day Friday, stocks are bouncing between 1,540 and 1,550; perilously close to what Nenner would consider a technical breakdown.

What happens then?

"I think the beginning of May it starts to get scary," says Nenner. Most people would argue it's plenty frightening already, both in and out of the stock market.

from yahoo finance

ferrara outlook 2013

Add caption

WHY IS FERRERA’S OUTLOOK FOR 2013 OF VALUE TO YOU? A CRITICAL POINT IN 2013!

ARE WE AT A TOP? OR WILL THERE BE A NEW BREAKTHROUGH TO HIGHER LEVELS?

With the Dow again pushing ALL TIME HIGHS, in the face of a weak economy, and impending global crises, and unemployment, do you expect that these prices will hold forever?  Do you think we are about to break through to new highs and an extended Bull Market?  Are you reading this because you are seeking advice on when this situation is going to turn around, one way or the other?  Ferrera says that 2013 IS A CRITICAL YEAR, expected to produce a significant change in the markets, and he has collated over a dozen different forecasting techniques to cross-verify his own exhaustive analysis. If you are invested in or concerned about the markets in any way, you will not want to miss this important insight into what’s coming in the next few years…

FERRERA OUTLOOK FOR 2013 CONTENTS:

·        Bull & Bear Calendar Years

·        Gann’s 10 Year Cycle

·        18.6 Year Node Cycle

·        George Lindsay Mirror Forecast Technique

·        Super Bull & Bear Market Cycle

·        Depression Cycles

·        Gann’s Financial Timetable – Updated!

·        Employment Statistics

·        Cycles vs. Periodicity

·        Pattern Recognition & Modeling

·        DTF Barometer 18 Component Cyclic Forecast Model

·        Gann Sequence Cycles – Summation Cycles

·        Ted Warren Top Projection Technique

·        W. D. Gann’s Mass Pressure Chart

·        Key Dates for Changes in Trend

·        Market Price Structure & Waves

·        Harry Dent’s Spending Wave

·        Rudy Bes Cyclic Index

·        Long Term Conclusions – Looking to the Next 10 Years

·        Gann 20 & 40 & 60 Year Stock Market Patterns

·        The 42 & 45 Year Cycles

·        The Two Trend Cycles

·        Geometrical Angles & Mathematical Formula on Dow

·        Dow Chart Squaring Rates

·        The Alternative Outlook for 2013

·        2013 in Light of Historical Patterns

·        The January Effect

·        Benner Forecasting Cycles

·        The Economy

·        Additional Cyclic Factors

·        Public Confidence for 2013

·        Remote Shared Learning

·        Timing Important Stock Market Bottoms – The “Opportunist” - A bonus trading system included by Dan in this report, that historically has identified most major market bottoms over the past decades, with clear, simple rules for trading.

·        73 Pages of Detailed Analysis

TO ORDER FERRERA'S OUTLOOKS - CLICK HERE

Marc Faber : repeat 1987 crash formation

refer to cycle chart; =2013 top of  cycle

faber article

Stocks are up big to start 2013 but Marc Faber, Editor & Publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, says it ends in tears.

"Either the market is going to correct more meaningfully now or we have a shallow correction and a continuously rising market until July or August," Faber told me via phone from Thailand. If stocks don't pullback soon, he says we risk a repeat of 1987 when stocks rallied 40% into summer only to collapse 41% in 2 months.

"In March of 2009 everything looked horrible, now nobody can find a reason why stocks could go down," Faber claims. "We ask that you should buy stocks when everything looks horrible, you shouldn't rush to buy them when everything looks perfect."

The problem is that it's hard to find anyone claiming the environment is perfect. Even the theme running under the reports of "the masses" buying stocks is that it's a cue to sell, not buy.

Analysts are looking for almost no corporate earnings growth in the current quarter and not much better than that for the balance of the year. The idea that Fed money printing is supporting assets may be true, but the FOMC has given clear guidelines on when the printing will stop. When inflation (as measured) rises past 2% or unemployment falls below 6.5% the Fed will raise rates.

Even if you think the Fed is wrong, there's no basis for calling them liars. A surprise end to Quantitative Easing isn't on the table. It's hard to make much of a case for ebullience beyond the fact of stocks much-hyped journey toward all-time highs.

So what's an investor to do? Faber says it's a matter of allocation and perspective. Stocks have gone very far in a relatively short amount of time. If you caught the rally, he says it's time to trim but not bail out entirely. If you're a Johnny-come-lately to stocks, you're too late as he sees it.

"If you have 100% of your money in equities and you just bought them now, maybe you should reassess your position," says Faber.

trading Rules

1.Amount of capital to use: Divide your capital into 10 equal parts and never risk more than one-tenth of your capital on any one trade.
2. Use stop loss orders. Always protect a trade when you make it with a stop loss order
3. Never overtrade. This would be violating your capital rules.
4. Never let a profit run into a loss. After you once have a profit, raise your stop loss order so that you will have no loss of capital.
5. Do not buck the trend. Never buy or sell if you are not sure of the trend according to your charts and rules.
6. Trade only in active markets. Keep out of slow, dead ones.
7. Never limit your orders or fix a buying or selling price. Trade at the market.
8. Don’t close your trades without a good reason. Follow up with a stop loss order to protect your profits.
9. Never buy or sell just to get a scalping profit.
10. Never average a loss. This is one of the worst mistakes a trader can make!
11. Never get out of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the market because you are anxious from waiting.
12. Avoid taking small profits and big losses.
13. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it at the time you make a trade.
14. Be just as willing to sell short as you are to buy. Let your object be to keep with the trend and make money.
15. Never buy just because the price of a commodity is low or sell short just because the price is high.
16. Be careful about pyramiding at the wrong time. Wait until the commodity is very active and has crossed resistance levels before buying more, and
until it has broken out of the zone of distribution before selling more.

trading rules

http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=4192404601226576414#editor/target=post;postID=4249405231399955016

TRADING RULES

Amount of capital to use: Divide your capital into 10 equal parts and never risk more than one-tenth of your capital on any one trade.
2. Use stop loss orders. Always protect a trade when you make it with a stop loss order
3. Never overtrade. This would be violating your capital rules.
4. Never let a profit run into a loss. After you once have a profit, raise your stop loss order so that you will have no loss of capital.
5. Do not buck the trend. Never buy or sell if you are not sure of the trend according to your charts and rules.
6. Trade only in active markets. Keep out of slow, dead ones.
7. Never limit your orders or fix a buying or selling price. Trade at the market.
8. Don’t close your trades without a good reason. Follow up with a stop loss order to protect your profits.
9. Never buy or sell just to get a scalping profit.
10. Never average a loss. This is one of the worst mistakes a trader can make!
11. Never get out of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the market because you are anxious from waiting.
12. Avoid taking small profits and big losses.
13. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it at the time you make a trade.
14. Be just as willing to sell short as you are to buy. Let your object be to keep with the trend and make money.
15. Never buy just because the price of a commodity is low or sell short just because the price is high.
16. Be careful about pyramiding at the wrong time. Wait until the commodity is very active and has crossed resistance levels before buying more, and
until it has broken out of the zone of distribution before selling more.

DOWJONES SIGNALLING REVERSAL

Is a Swift Market Reversal Coming by Mid-April? By: William James Editor, Insider Wealth Alert The bulls are firmly in control. But for how much longer? Dennis Slothower – editor of Marketwatch.com’s “Letter of the Year” for 2011 – last night sent an urgent message to his paid Stealth S tocks Daily Alert subscribers. Dennis’ message warned about the potential for a coming “Oil Shock” recession – and he also revealed why this bull market may be history inside of three weeks. I’ve arranged to share Dennis’ message with you – free of charge – below. Please take a moment to read this important information. Good investing, William James Editor, Insider Wealth Alert Warning: Oil Shock Recession Growing Even More Likely By Dennis Slothower Editor, Stealth Stocks Daily Alert Stocks rallied strongly again on Monday as Ben Bernanke’s promised again in speech more monetary accommodation to get the economy growing faster and improve unemployment. The market took this as a sign the Fed is still committed to pumping up the equities and commodity markets, with a strong hint that QE3 was still on the bur ners – perhaps as soon as April, probably to stave off the traditional April sell off. In a speech to the National Association for Business Economics spring conference, Bernanke argued that in spite of three months of job improvement, the jobs market is too weak and therefore, the Fed will continue its monetary easing policies to improve unemployment and get the economy to grow faster. In truth, we should expect exactly the opposite with record high gasoline prices. But the market reacted about how you might expect on any talk of more liquidity from the Fed. The US dollar fell sharply on his comment s and commodities soared, sending the stock market up sharply but als o driving up gasoline prices to $3.90 a gallon for regular on a national basis. After Bernanke’s near promise of more easy money, I can’t see why we won’t see $4 a gallon and higher by Easter/Passover – perhaps sooner than that. Exclusive Offer Bill Gross' Shocking Wall Street Revelation: “The system is rigged!” Since 2008 -- no matter if the stock market has been up or down -- only one thing has been constant. The individual investor has been getting screwed. Bill Gross -- the co-founder of PIMCO and the world-renowned "Bond King" ; -- recently confirmed that, "The system is rigged." This new video reveals the shocking ways Wall Street is rigging the system against you...and it tells you about a unique solution that will allow you to turn the tables on Wall Street -- and bring home market-crushing returns year after year. Click here to watch this urgent video. It’s mind boggling to hear that the average price for gasoline across the 27 European nations just broke above USD $10/gallon. You can just imagine what this is going to do to food prices this summer and, more importantly, what soaring gasoline prices might have done to corporate earnings in the first quarter, now fast approaching. For example, take a look at the technology sector over the last year with Apple computer’s earnings and without Apple’s earnings in the mix. Stunning isn’t it? It was a year ago when I warned that an oil shock recession was before us and based on this chart, earnings have been deteriorating since crude oil prices first exceeded 5.5% of the GDP. Now just imagine what companies earnings are going to do after an 85 cent increase in gasoline prices in the first quarter. This should all come home to roost by about mid-April, when fir st quarter earnings are released. What ’s Next for U.S. Stocks Technically, the market remains in bull market territory. Prices continue to trend above the 50-day simple moving averages for the S&P 500 with the majority of S&P 500 stocks (within the index) still trading well above their 200-day moving averages. Exclusive Offer The $2.15 Billion Letter that Could Greatly Impact Your Investments With one simple, 1,283-word letter, Greg Smith cost his company a whopping $2.15 billion. Yet – by most accounts – Greg Smith is being hailed as a hero. Why? Because Greg Smith worked for Goldman Sachs. And the letter he wrote that cost Goldman $2.15 billion was his resignation letter – printed on the op-ed page of the New York Times. This new video expose reveals for you what Greg Smith was so upset about...and it also tells you what you can do about it. Click here to watch this urgent video. As long as we continue to see at least 65% of the percentage of the stocks trading within the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages, the bulls have firm control of the uptrend. Currently, we have over 80% of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving average. Be aware that stock market seasonality tops in April and given the extreme lows we’ve recently seen in the CBOE volatility index (VIX) falling recently below 15, it has marked major market tops in April of 2011, April of 2010 and in April of 2008, so beware that positive seasonality ends usually by mid-April. Use stop loss limit orders on your investments but be aware that stop loss limit orders become market orders in fast market conditions or when markets gap sharply lower on the opening.

This email is from Insider Wealth Alert Eastman Communications Inc. PO Box 290708 - Brooklyn, NY 11229 Privacy Policy click here Please note that we are not a registered investment firm or broker/dealer. Readers are advised that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes. We urge you to always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. We will not be liable for any l oss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information obtained i n this email or on our web sites. Our readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions. Please, click here to read all disclaimers. Eastman Communications is the publisher of Stealth Stocks, Hidden Values Alert, & Insider Wealth Alert © 2012 by Insider Wealth Alert, All rights reserved. Unsubscribe | Forward to a friend

Corporates Celebrities

every Boom has a famous corporate celebrity

BULL MARKET SIGNALS DOWJONES 14000 - 2012

DOWJONES SIGNALLING TOP @ 12800ask for special report
by wealth daily
Dowjones 2012  Forecasts
the contrarian...
Obama speech a Fantasy of Lies
our chart forecast

GodmanSachs predict a shocking 2012

WWW.TTHEORY.COM

Terry Laundry observation charts as 20/01/2012

BLOG ARCHIVES 2011

the headings and updates , as they  are updated, are filed here
11/08/2011
WORLD MARKET TAKING THE DIVE *** OUR SUPPORT BROKEN .. LOOK AT DOW MONTHLY CHART *****MARKET SIGNALS trending down DOW SUPPORT 10650 click for latest update***Daily Dow Jones Shows No Concrete Signs Of Sustainable Rebound.****as at 17 june 2011***The bears are back, and they're talking recession 20/06/2011**** ALERT****THE VIX BOUNCE SHARPLY****24/06/2011 count down watch**** 5 years DJI charts *** stocks picking starting soon****3 more days to update your Accounting*****27/06/2011*** DOW up from support 11900****Good bounce , waiting the test 11800*****12500 Median channel line target**** caution required**** important support 12400*****

FINANCIALS PRESS Release

Andrew Ferrara
economics outlook 2012

Market Minute: January 29, 2012: The "January Effect" and the probabilities for 2012

The strength in the S&P 500 this month tells more about the performance for the rest of the year than most investors realise. Over the last 40 years, whenever the US market has had a return above 3.75% in January, the S&P 500 finished the year higher. Currently, the index is up 4.44%.

Since 1970, there has been 13 times when the US market has been above 3.75% in January. Every time the index completed the year with a substantial gain.

The 13 Januarys with returns of 3.75% or greater were in 1971, 72, 75, 76, 79, 83, 85, 87, 88, 89, 91, 97 and 99.

The average gain for the rest of the year was a surprising 19.6%. This means that if this January can finish above 1307.25, then there is a very strong probability of the index going higher in 2012. And as there are only two more trading days left this month, the US market would have to drop 10.77 points or more to cancel out the effect.

Bottom line: The S&P 500 has gained 4.44% in January. With two days remaining, the probability of a good performing 2012 is building. If the US index can close out the month above 1307.25, then there is a strong likelihood of another 15% gain by year-end based on 40 years of data.

Investment approach: The odds for a promising 2012 are mounting. If the S&P 500 does perform well, as the last 13 Januarys with a 3.75% would suggest, then investors may wish to remain fully invested this year to take advantage of the anticipated rise.

From an intermarket perspective, it is also worth noting what happens when the US markets moves up. The US dollar index and bond prices normally move in the opposite direction to the S&P 500. Commodities are closely coordinated with equities. If the stock market advances this year, so should base metal, gold, silver, oil and agricultural grain prices.

Also, there is a shift out of defensive sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare and utilities and a move to growth industries like technology, energy, mining, consumer discretionaries, construction and basic industry.

More research on commodities and the markets will be in the upcoming February newsletter.

Donald W. Dony, FCSI , MFTA

WATCH GOLDMAN SACHS AGAIN???

all  their forecasts  go opposite direction

2011  they forecasted a great year

2012 they forecasting a down year

they are markets manipulators connected to governement

Dow Jones Shocking Prediction Forecast for 2012

Posted on January 17, 2012 by admin

There is a shocking Dow Jones predictions for 2012: (sources: internet news websites):
Analyst Goldman Sachs predicts a major military developments in late 2012 and urges its clients to dump shares.
Last year Fox Business Channel for the first time publicly announced planned for the end of 2012 the great war. A former senior analyst and forecaster of the most influential financial services company Goldman Sachs, said a leading dumbfounded that his clients should begin to dump securities, as the military events of late 2012 would entail a major meltdown of financial markets. Anviktori published translation of the article Paul Watson, Infowars.com editor of this information megabombe, fell in a studio FoxBusiness network.
Massive conflict will cause the collapse of the securities market, strategic analyst forecasts Nenner. Yesterday, when the forecaster Charles Nenner told Fox TV (Fox Business network) about what the Dow Jones (Dow Jones) come down to the level of 5.000 because of major military events that shake the world in late 2012, Fox TV hosts David and Elizabeth MacDonald, Esma froze in shock.

Ferrara outlook 2012

Our economic outlook

An editorial opinion 
by Troy Frerichs, CFA^® Senior Investment Officer

January 5, 2012

A fresh start is what many investors are thinking about after leaving 2011 behind. While overall returns were flat-to-positive over the full year, the headlines and associated market volatility left most feeling exhausted.

After a third quarter in which we saw the S&P 500 decline 13.9% and 10-year U.S. treasury rates drop to 1.9% over concerns in Europe, a U.S. sovereign debt downgrade, political disarray in Washington and anemic U.S. economic growth, we had a fourth quarter that reversed most of the damage. While the European overhang was and is still present, improving U.S. economic data led to the S&P 500 gaining 11.8% during the fourth quarter. The bond market told a different story, however, with rates on 10-year treasuries remaining virtually unchanged from the third quarter, seemingly unwilling to accept the better U.S. economic data in the face of the festering European debt crisis.

So once the dust settled, where did that leave us for 2011? In the stock market, virtually the same place that we started, as the S&P 500 ended the year flat, not including a return from dividends (total return of 2.11%). In the bond market, the Barcap U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (a good proxy for the overall bond market) reflected the nearly 2.00% drop in 10-year treasury yields over the course of 2011 and ended the year with a 7.84% total return. Within U.S. stocks, growth stocks outperformed value stocks, and large capitalization stocks outperformed mid- and small- capitalization stocks. Defensive economic sectors of the U.S. market performed best including utilities, consumer staples and healthcare, while more cyclical sectors -- such as materials, industrials and financials -- underperformed the broad market. U.S. stocks also outperformed those of Europe, Japan and emerging markets. Most sectors of the bond market were positive, with safe haven sectors such as treasuries, municipals, TIPS and investment grade corporates performing best.

So what will we do with our fresh start? With the major caveat that the European debt crisis doesn’t spread to the rest of the world, we anticipate 2012 to be a lot like 2011. We think stocks look relatively attractive as investors come to terms with the fact that there is some growth in the U.S. economy. There is a long list of positives going into 2012 like Real GDP that is at an all-time high, record corporate earnings, an improving employment picture, strong consumer spending, a pickup in manufacturing activity, low interest rates, tame inflation, and an election year (typically good for stocks). However, that could all  be wiped out with a complete meltdown in Europe. At the same time, it is difficult to be excited about bonds, particularly treasuries, with yields near all-time lows. When everyone wants something, it usually gets expensive, and right now, we think investors are paying a premium for safety.

People who achieve financial security rarely do so alone

With all of the current economic uncertainty, this is a perfect time to contact your financial representative for an in-depth review of your situation. Backed by a team of experts, your financial representative is equipped to give you the guidance you need. 

one of  my  favorite  professors of  economy  is  PR   Nouriel Roubini

2 articles  describing  the  global picture???
article posted by google 18 june 2011
Debt Will Haunt the Market for Years to Come

Listening to Republican presidential candidates and soon-to-be candidates earlier this week, one might conclude America is going down the tubes, or maybe already has.
Now, along comes New York University economics Prof. Nouriel Roubini, who sees a perfect storm of global events that could complete the down-the-tubes journey, not just for America, but for the rest of the global economy as well.
Among Prof. Roubini’s storm fronts is (1) a fragile U.S. economic recovery, coupled with a mushrooming debt, (2) looming economic problems in China, (3) debt issues eroding government stability in Europe, and (4) Japan’s moribund economy due to a crippling national disaster.
For those who never watched the film “The Perfect Storm,” it was a fictionalized version of a real perfect storm that stuck the U.S. Northeast coast in October 1991, when competing weather fronts clashed to create, well, the film’s title says it all — disparate forces coming together from different directions, making the whole much more devastating than the parts.
Roubini sees the global economic forces lining up for just such an event, possibly as early as 2013. In fact, sounding more like a Vegas oddsmaker than an economics professor, he insists the chances of a global collapse are one in three.
OK, he’s got our attention. But when you think about it, a one-in-three chance means there’s a two-in-three chance there won’t be a planet-wide economic meltdown. In gambler’s terms, that’s not so bad.
The problem is that the world’s decision makers continue to kick the can down the road, a point made in a Bloomberg Internet report on Roubini’s bold prediction, which provoked one ‘net blogger to opine:
“Ever feel like YOUR can is getting kicked down the road?”
He was referring to the public’s inclination to accept as fact the direst predictions from economists, turning a best-guess estimate into a full-blown, self-fulfilling prophecy.
There is one enduring fact about economists predicting future events — they usually give you the worst case, then mitigate the impact by offering various alternatives.
For example, Roubini seems particularly pessimistic about the future of the global economy — with his 33-percent chance of complete failure — while in the next breath he points out that, if the worst doesn’t happen, the global economy will continue to be anemic, but will be OK, or he can envision a scenario in which the global economy actually improves, considerably.
Like most economists, the professor is hedging his bets, which should make everyone feel better about the potential for a meltdown. Roubini was, however, the economist who first predicted, in 2006, a catastrophic global financial meltdown. Two years later, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. imploded, igniting the economic firestorm that sank the global economy to depths not seen since the 1930s.
So, what does all this mean? Are we to prepare for a perfect storm, full recovery or something in between?
Perhaps the answer lies not in the possible outcomes, but in the dynamics that compelled the good professor to wax gloomy in the first place — his belief that governments have been deferring the tough economic decisions for too many years, kicking the can down the road, a chain of events that has an inevitable doomsday feel to it.
The world has been on a spending spree for far too long, and Americans and their government are among the worst offenders. The bills are coming due, and we have no checks to put in the mail.

Copyright 2011 Santa Maria Times. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Posted in Editorial on Saturday, June 18, 2011 12:00 am Updated: 5:58 pm.

Fears over pace of global economic recovery weigh on stock markets 

Fears over pace of global economic recovery weigh on stock markets

By Pan Pylas, The Associated Press – 5 days ago

LONDON — Concerns over the U.S. economic recovery and expectations China will raise interest rates again weighed on stock markets Monday, while the euro was steady at the start of a potentially crucial week in the Greek debt crisis.
Over the past month, the economic newsflow has turned distinctly negative, particularly out of the U.S. Investors are now worried that the mark up in share prices in the early part of the year may have been overdone — stocks are effectively a leading indicator of economic output for the period ahead.
Nouriel Roubini, a New York University economics professor notorious for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, cautioned against risky investments.
"In the last month, things have changed, the evidence is that maybe this is not just a soft patch but something worse," he said in a speech in Singapore. "If your horizon is the next two or three months, I would be a bit defensive on equities...This is time to be cautious, and safe rather than sorry."
In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 0.2 per cent at 5,777, while France's CAC-40 rose 0.1 per cent to 3,809.22. Germany's DAX fell 0.1 per cent to 7,065. Trading activity in Europe was low as many countries, including Germany and France, were on national holiday though stock markets remained open for business.
Wall Street was poised for a lacklustre opening — Dow futures were up 0.1 per cent to 11,885, while the broader Standard & Poor's 500 futures rose an equivalent rate to 1,265.
Given the public holidays in many parts of Europe and a light economic calendar in the U.S., analysts were skeptical that stocks would gain any momentum over the day.
Tuesday may have more to offer, with Chinese inflation data likely to stoke concerns that the People's Bank of China will tighten monetary policy again soon. U.S. retail sales figures for May will also provide an insight into the state of the U.S. economic recovery — consumer spending accounts for around 70 per cent of the U.S. economy.
"All stock markets remain under pressure going into this week, and in the short-term at least, it is difficult to see the catalyst that is going to spark off a sustainable rally," said David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Index.
In the currency markets, investors continue to monitor any developments surrounding the Greek debt crisis ahead of next week's meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels, where a fresh Greek bailout is on the agenda.
On Friday, the euro tanked amid signs that policymakers in Europe have divergent views on how to deal with the Greek crisis, with the European Central Bank and the German government at odds on getting Greece's bondholders to share some of the pain in helping the country.
Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has proposed that bondholders contribute a "substantial" portion of a fresh bailout package for Greece by giving the country an extra seven years to repay existing bonds. But European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet has said nothing should be done that would be deemed "a credit event" by the ratings agencies and that any private sector involvement has to be done on a voluntary basis.
"A failure to achieve a workable agreement by the end of the eurogroup meeting next Monday threatens the real risk of what Schaeuble described last week as the first unorderly default within the eurozone," said Simon Derrick, senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon.
By late morning London time, the euro was up 0.1 per cent at $1.4355. That's three cents lower than the one-month highs it reached only last Thursday.
Earlier in Asian trading, Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 0.7 per cent to close at 9,448.21 after the government reported that core machinery orders fell unexpectedly by 3.3 per cent during April. The drop came as companies cancelled orders following a devastating March 11 earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan that destroyed or damaged scores of factories.
The decline was the first in four months, evidence that the twin disasters continue to take their toll on Japan's economy. The seasonally adjusted figure includes heavily electrical machinery, engines, machine tools, road vehicles and aircraft but excludes orders for ships and utilities because of their volatility.
South Korea's Kospi closed 0.1 per cent higher at 2,048.74 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index finished 0.4 per cent higher at 22,508.08.
But mainland Chinese shares edged lower as market players reacted to data showing a dip in bank lending and awaited the inflation figures that could show the consumer price index surging to more than 6 per cent.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2 per cent to 2,700.38 after dipping more than 1 per cent earlier in the day. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.2 per cent to 1,110.89.
In the oil markets, crude continued to fall on concerns over the global economic recovery and speculation that Saudi Arabia will decide to raise production levels despite last week's surprise decision by the OPEC oil cartel to maintain current levels.
Benchmark oil for July delivery was down $1 at $98.32 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
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Pamela Sampson in Bangkok contributed to this story.

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