Financial strategies 2012

 as 30 june 2011 all positions reentered at MV value and welcome to

FINANCIAL YEAR 2012
all markets in correction mode   

looking   and analyzing trend line - support line - cycles projections
extreme caution needed when entering a position

XXXXXXXXXXXXX 2011XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

watching the market very closely..
the pennyshares seems to run..
many stocks approaching top of cycle
will sell into the momentum
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED   for 2011



 DISTRIBUTION TIME ?????
Commentary: While Tuesday's( firts week january ) down day in the markets was relatively tame as far as the major indexes were concerned, many former market leaders suffered a high volume selloff. Even though one distribution day isn’t usually enough to change the overall trend in a stock, it does shock current market participants and will likely have a residual effect moving forward. Often when a stock suffers a violent down day, the low will act as a resistance level as worried market participants begin to sell on any bounces back into the selloff day's price range.

Why the Bullish Forecasts for 2011 Might Hit a Few Snags

By Eric Fry

01/10/11 Laguna Beach, California – The Dow Jones Industrial Average did not produce any explosive gains during the first five days of the New Year, but it did produce a “quiet” gain of almost 100 points –continuing a recent trend of steady, if unremarkable, progress.
The Dow has advanced for seven consecutive weeks, but has gained only about 100 points per week during that timeframe. So the recent price action does not feel over-the-top exuberant. Instead, it feels steady, reliable…almost predictable.
Everyone knows the market will go up next week, just like it went up last week…and the week before that. This seeming predictability is simply a different strain of irrational exuberance. When the market seems as soothing as a Corona Beer commercial, the “fear instinct” goes dormant. Investors forget to worry.
But a Corona beer commercial isn’t reality. And neither is a tranquil, friendly stock market.
Nevertheless, most Wall Street strategists have been falling all over one another to proclaim their bullish forecasts for 2011. Goldman Sachs strategist, David Kostin, is looking for a 17% rally in the S&P 500 Index this year, while most of his Wall Street counterparts are expecting at least low double-digit gains.
We hope these hopeful prognostications come to fruition. In general, up is much better than down. But it’s a long year ahead and the road to gains may not be as direct and “predictable” as the Dow’s recent performance might suggest.
The market might encounter a few bumps along the way. In fact, David Rosenberg, economist for Canada’s Gluskin Sheff, expects the market to encounter a few bumps very soon. “Signs of excessive exuberance abound,” says Rosenberg.
In particular:

• The VIX index, at 17.5x, is back to where it was last April. Remember what happened next.
• Investors Intelligence bullish sentiment is back to where it was at the all-time market highs of October 2007.
• The non-commercial accounts on the CME have recently opened up a considerable net speculative long position in equities, particularly the QQQ’s (NASDAQ stocks).
• Market leadership is narrowing, as Bob Farrell has been busy pointing out.
• The number of short-selling positions slid 2.2% in the first half of December on the NYSE; and by 2.8% on the NASDAQ. The bears are running scared.
• As Kelly Evans asserted last week, the AAII investor sentiment poll has been above its historical norm now for 17 weeks running – the longest stretch in six years.
• Since July, margin debt has exploded by 16% to $274 billion, the most since September 2008 when people still thought we were in a soft landing.
• Equity mutual funds and ETF’s took in $24 billion in December (TrimTabs data)… The last time we saw retail inflows like this into equities was last March…just ahead of a 17% correction.

Meanwhile, over in the housing market, there are absolutely no signs of excessive exuberance. In fact, there are barely any signs of anything, which is just one of the reasons why the housing market may offer one of the most compelling investment opportunities of 2011.
Eric Fry
for The Daily Reckoning

Eric Fry

Eric J. Fry, Agora Financial’s Editorial Director, has been a specialist in international equities for nearly two decades. He was a professional portfolio manager for more than 10 years, specializing in international investment strategies and short-selling.  Following his successes in professional money management, Mr. Fry joined the Wall Street-based publishing operations of James Grant, editor of the prestigious Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Working alongside Grant, Mr. Fry produced Grant's International and Apogee Research —  institutional research products dedicated to international investment opportunities and short selling.
Mr. Fry subsequently joined Agora Inc., as Editorial Director. In this role, Mr. Fry  supervises the editorial and research processes of numerous investment letters and services. Mr. Fry also publishes investment insights and commentary under his own byline as Editor of The Daily Reckoning. Mr. Fry authored the first comprehensive guide to investing internationally with American Depository Receipts.  His views and investment insights have appeared in numerous publications including Time, Barron's, Wall Street Journal, International Herald Tribune, Business Week, USA Today, Los Angeles Times and Money.
Special Report: Why We Left Wall Street... And How You Can Grab Three FREE Issues of Our Most Important New Service. Learn More...

View articles by Eric Fry

Read more: Why the Bullish Forecasts for 2011 Might Hit a Few Snags http://dailyreckoning.com/why-the-bullish-forecasts-for-2011-might-hit-a-few-snags/#ixzz1AjKXmQvj

PREDICTIONS 2011

 

http://www.scribd.com/doc/24444605/Barron-12-Market-Strategists-Market-Forecast-for-2010 

GOLDMANSACHS  BULLISH 2011

Related Quotes

Symbol	Price	Change
BKX.TO	4.06	0.00
GS	169.76	0.00
KBE	26.19	0.00

{"s" : "bkx.to,gs,kbe","k" : "a00,a50,b00,b60,c10,g00,h00,l10,p20,t10,v00","o" : "","j" : ""}

On Tuesday 7 December 2010, 5:49 EST

Goldman Sachs is bullish on the U.S. economy for 2011, and forecasts U.S. stocks will see their third straight year of gains.
The investment banking powerhouse sees the S&P 500 (INDEX: .SPX) gaining nearly 25 percent to a level of 1450 in the next 12 months, fueled by strong corporate profits, easy monetary policies and an improving U.S. economy.
Goldman (NYSE:GS - News) sees stocks gaining as the U.S. economic growth accelerating from 2.5 to 4 percent by the end of 2012, but says investors will continue to have doubt. (Watch comments by Goldman's Chief U.S. Investment Strategist David Kostin in the video clip later in this story.)
"Despite these many positives, the equity investing landscape is hard to decipher," Goldman's U.S. investment strategy team writes in its 2011 U.S. equity forecast, which is headlined "Easy Money, Hard Market."
Investors remain understandably skeptical about positive economic data, Goldman says, because the improvement is coming from a fairly low base. But the strategists argue with strong corporate balance sheets, low inflation and interest rates that "the path of earnings growth has rarely been smoother."
Goldman is recommending its clients increase their investments in cyclical sectors. It continues to overweight technology, and has raised its outlook on energy and financials to overweight from neutral.
Goldman also recommends investors underweight defensive sectors like health care, consumer staples and utilities.
Long U.S. Bank Stocks
Goldman's global investment team rates U.S. Large Cap Commercial Banks among its "Top Trades for 2011." The firm expects financial sector earnings to grow 24 percnet, with the economic recovery leading to improving loan demands and credit trends for the big banks. It also believes the large cap banks will get back to paying dividends in 2011.
The firm recommends clients gain exposure to the sector through the KBW Bank Index (Toronto:BKX.TO - News) or SPDR ETF based on the index (NYSEArca:KBE - News).
Commodities: Gold, Oil Higher in 2011

Goldman believes low U.S. interest rates will continue to underpin the rally in commodities like gold. The firm expects the precious metal futures to climb to $1,690 an ounce by the end of 2011 and continue to move higher.
But the firm believes prices will likely peak at $1,750 an ounce in 2012, as the U.S. recovery will see interest rates move higher.
Goldman's commodities strategists also see oil futures rising to $105 dollars a barrel in 2011, and demand improving along with the U.S. economy. The firm notes, "Energy is historically the best performing sector when the ISM is above 50, which seems increasingly likely given strong October ISM and our US economists upgrade to their 2011 growth outlook."
Currencies: Top Trade, Bad Call
Among the risks Goldman sees for 2011 is moderating growth in China, as Beijing tries to reign in inflation.
While its economic teams saw the improvement in U.S. growth lagging emerging markets in 2010, Goldman strategists believe the trend has reversed over the last six months, "with our US economics team now more constructive on domestic growth, but our China economists expecting monetary tightening through increases in interest rates and reserve requirements over the next three to six months."
One of the firm's top trades for 2011 involves shorting the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan exchange. The firm argues low rates in the U.S. will keep the dollar lower, while China will have to let its currency rise next year, as it undertakes policies to control growth. "Rising external political pressure on the CNY from the US and other countries, as well as the threat of escalating trade tensions, expose China's dependence on exports. More gradual CNY appreciation would help alleviate these tensions."
While most of Goldman's 2010 predictions on the U.S. stock market, commodities prices and economic growth have generally proven right on the money, its crystal ball was much more cloudy when it came to some key currency calls.
One of Goldman's top trades for 2010 proved a big loser. The firm's currency strategists recommended shorting the New Zealand dollar and going long the British pound, saying at the time, "We are more bullish on Sterling, linked to a stronger cyclical momentum in response to a large easing in financial conditions."
But the Kiwi has been strong performer this year on the strength of the country's rising commodity prices. The analyst who made that call reportedly apologized to clients in a recent note, saying it may have results in losses of more 12 percent.
Even Babe Ruth never batted a thousand. 

When Goldman says go long that means they are short.


for more go to the link
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/Goldman-Sachs-2011-Forecast-cnbc-4210599228.html?x=0&.v=1

BUBBLE  TALK

interesting  video

http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2011/01/17/n_bz_stocks_soaring.cnnmoney/ 

 

PENNY SHARES ARE MORE FUNS

Investing in penny stocks gives traders using the possibility to significantly improve their earnings, nevertheless, it also gives an equal chance to shed your trading capital swiftly. These five tips will allow you to reduced the chance of among the riskiest investment vehicles.

one. Penny Stocks and shares are a penny for any reason.
Although we all dream about committing inside the subsequent Microsoft or the subsequent House Depot, the truth is, the odds of you finding that when in a decade achievement story are slim. These firms are either beginning out and bought a shell organization mainly because it was less costly than an IPO, or they basically do not have a company program compelling enough to justify expense banker’s funds for an IPO. This doesn’t make them a poor expense, but it ought to make you be realistic concerning the type of business that you simply are investing in.
a couple of. Dealing Volumes
Search for a consistent high amount of shares being traded. Searching in the average amount may be misleading. If ABC trades one million shares today, and does not trade for that rest with the week, the daily average will appear to be 200 000 shares. So that you can get in and out at an acceptable rate of return, you may need consistent amount. Also take a look at the number of trades per day. Is it 1 insider promoting or purchasing? Liquidity should be the very first thing to look at. If there’s no volume, you will wind up holding “dead money”, where the only way of marketing shares is always to dump at the bid, which will place more promoting pressure, resulting in an even reduce sell cost.
3. Does the organization know how to produce a profit?
Although its not unusual to see a commence up company run at a loss, its essential to take a look at why they are losing funds. Is it manageable? Will they’ve to look for further financing (resulting in dilution of one’s shares) or will they’ve to seek a joint partnership that favors the other company?
If your business knows how to produce a profit, the organization can use that cash to grow their business, which increases shareholder value. You have to complete some investigation to locate these companies, but whenever you do, you lower the chance of a loss of one’s capital, and improve the odds of a much higher return.
4. Have an entry and exit strategy – and stick to it.
Penny stocks and shares are volitile. They will rapidly move up, and move down just as rapidly. Bear in mind, should you purchase a inventory at $0.10 and market it at $0.12, that represents a 20% return on your purchase. A a couple of cent decline leaves you having a 20% loss. Many stocks and shares business in this range on a everyday basis. If your purchase cash is $10 000, a 20% reduction is really a $2000 reduction. Do this 5 times and you’re out of funds. Retain your stops close. If you get stopped out, move on to the following opportunity. The industry is telling you some thing, and whether or not you want to admit it or not, its generally greatest to listen.
If your strategy was to sell at $0.12 and it jumps to $0.13, either take the 30% gain, or better still, location your stop at $0.12. Lock within your profits although not capping the upside prospective.
five. How did you find out in regards to the inventory?
Most individuals find out about penny shares through a mailing record. You can find numerous superb penny store newsletters, however, you will find just as several who are pumping and dumping. They, together with insiders, will load up on shares, then start to pump the organization to unsuspecting newsletter subscribers. These subscribers buy although insiders are selling. Guess who wins right here.
Not all newsletters are bad. Having worked inside the industry for your last 8 years, I have seen my share of unscrupulous companies and promoters. Some are paid in shares, at times in restricted shares (an agreement whereby the shares cannot be sold for any predetermined period of time), others in cash.
How you can spot the excellent firms in the poor? Basically subscribe, and track the investments. Was there a legitimate opportunity to create cash? Do they have a track record of providing subscribers with fantastic opportunities? You will start to notice rapidly if you might have subscribed to a good newsletter or not.
A single other tip I would offer you to you isn’t to invest a lot more than 20% of one’s overall portfolio in penny shares. You’re spending to create funds and preserve cash to fight another battle. In case you place as well very much of one’s capital at risk, you increase the odds of losing your capital. If that 20% grows, you’ll have more than adequate funds to create a healthy rate of return. Penny stocks are risky to start with, why place your money more at danger?
You can find more information about canadian stock picks, how to invest penny stocks, and davren penny stocks

The problem with blue chips

‘They are going nowhere. Most of them have cut their dividends. They have massive deficits on their pension funds. They dare not offend the government. They are run by committees. And we all know what that means, don’t we?’
‘I think so,’ I replied. ‘But tell me anyway…’
‘Well,’ he went on, ‘Committees are run on what I call the Lowest Common Denominator Principle. Rather than reach a decision based on one person’s unshakeable conviction, they have to make decisions based on whatever low level of knowledge is sufficient to command a majority. Committees are slow to respond and inevitably cautious. As someone once said ‘If Columbus had an advisory committee he would probably still be at the dock.’’
He went on in this vein for quite some time. But he lost me, because I was trying to work something out. Let me tell you what was puzzling me…
Here was a man sounding off about the big companies that inhabit the FTSE 100 share index. His own money, he told us, was all invested in companies that were not big enough to be in this index. His money was invested in smaller, more dynamic companies; companies that have their future ahead of them and not behind them, if you know what I mean.


‘So what you are telling me,’ he said slowly, lifting his head towards his fund manager, ‘is that you can put your own money into the shares of small companies and benefit as they prosper and grow, but you must invest my money in all of these old… has-beens?’

He paused and then added, ‘…and Royal Bank of Scotland, in which I see the value of my shares has fallen by 90%, is considered to be a low risk investment?’

‘That’s right!’ said the fund manager, looking as pleased as Punch. ‘Absolutely! Got it in one!’

And there you have it. The fund manager said it all. Small caps might be seen as “high-risk” – but the potential for decent capital growth is much greater. If you can afford to take on a little higher risk, penny shares are the way to go.

I’m just putting the finishing touches to the August issue of Red Hot Penny Shares. I’ve got three very exciting recommendations this month. One is a way to play the swine flu mania; one’s a resources stock with interests in both coal and uranium; and the last is attempting to solve a major problem in Africa – with potentially huge returns on offer for investors.

Add your name to the Red Hot Penny Shares list today, and you’ll be in time to receive this latest issue when I send it at 5pm on Friday. Click here and scroll to the bottom of the website for full details and my current top opportunities.

Good investing,

CASINO CORNER...
insiders are just passing the chip around,, either friends related or management related  ...
most of time they are cashing in the chips on sharesholders hope???

ZURICH AXIOMS ON INVESTMENTS

Disclosure statements:

all contents of this blog are a selection of informations from the domaine and has to be treated

as amusements purpose, with no liabilities whatsoever

Max Gunther set forth basic trading principles called The Zurich Axioms:

On Risk:
- Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health - if you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
- Always play for meaningful stakes - if an amount is so small that its loss won’t make any significant difference, then it isn’t likely to bring any significant gains either.
- Resist the allure of diversification.

On Greed:
- Always take your profit too soon.
- Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.

On Hope:
- When the ship starts sinking, don’t pray. Jump.
- Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience several while awaiting a large gain.

On Forecasts:
- Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

On Patterns:
- Chaos is not dangerous until it starts to look orderly.
- Beware the historian’s trap - it is based on the age-old but entirely unwarranted belief that the orderly repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain situations.
- Beware the chartist’s illusion - it is characteristic of human minds to perceive links of cause and effect where none exist.
- Beware the gambler’s fallacy - there’s no such thing as "Today’s my lucky day" or "I’m hot tonight".

On Mobility:
- Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.
- Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.
- Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view.

On Intuition:
- A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.
- Never confuse a hunch with a hope.

On the Occult:
- If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.
- A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept in its place.

On Optimism & Pessimism:
- Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence mean knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.

On Consensus:
- Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong.
- Never follow speculative fads. Often, the best time to buy something is when nobody else wants it.

On Stubbornness:
- If it doesn’t pay off the first time, forget it.
- Never try to save a bad investment by "averaging down".

On Planning:
- Long-range plans engender the dangerous belief that the future is under control. It is important never to take your own long-range plans or other people’s seriously. In essence these axioms point to the benefit of having an investment strategy and sticking to it, regardless of what other investors say or do. If you don’t have an investment strategy, you could do worse than adopt these principles. However, don’t be afraid to add or subtract ones according to what works for you.

1. Sell the Losers and Let the Winners Run
2. Make Winners Win Big
3. Losers Demand Careful Strategy
4. It Is Better to Average Up Than to Average Down
5. Good Companies Buy Their Own Stock
6. Price Doubling Is Easy at Low Prices
7. Look for Insider Trading
8. Buy Low, Sell High
9. Buy High, Sell Higher
10. Buy on the Rumour, Sell on the News
11. Sell High, Buy Low
12. The Perfect Hedge Is Short against the Box
13. Never Short a Dull Market
14. Never Short the Trend
15. Never Buy a Stock Because It Has a Low Price
16. Beware the 'Penny Stock'
17. Give Stop Orders Wiggle Room
18. Buy the Stock That Splits
19. Instit unions Show Where the Action Is Now
20. Avoid Heavy Positions in Thinly Traded Stocks
21. There Are at Least Two Sides to a Story
22. Follow a Few Stocks Well
23. Be Wary of Stock Ideas from a Neighbour
24. Get Information before You Invest, Not After
25. Never Fight the Tape
26. Heavy Volume, the Price Rises - Light Volume, the Price Falls
27. Buy on Weakness, Sell on Strength
28. It Is Best to Trade 'At the Market'
29. Understand the Types of Orders
30. Order Modifications Might Cause Decay
31. Remember That Others Might Have the Same Idea
32. Use Limit Orders as Insurance
33. Vales can be Found Bottom Fishing
34. Heavily Margind, Heavily Watched
35. Winners keep on Winning
36. Indicators Can Meet Overriding Factors
37. Take a Loss Quickly
38. Beware The Triple Witching Hour
39. Buy on Monday, Sell on Friday
40. Never get Married to the Stock
41. Diversification Is the Key to Portfolio Management
42. Partial Liquidation Might Be the Answer
43. Act Quickly, Study at Leisure
44. Records Can Make Money
45. Fraud is Unpredictable

Chart studies Elliott Waves

any one follow the market with
AdvancedGet 10.5

OUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS

2011 Forecasts: as the stockmarket finish 2010 on a bullish note, we anticipate to enter 2011 with some momentum, so we believe we need an intermediate correction , in coincidence with June tax sell off , for accounting purpose.

Coal Mania

AQC
doing some works on big potential leases
reading the chart, a bit more to go into the new year

CEO
this one did bluff me>> a wreck from 20 cents to 0
being an optical capital seedlers company..
went down to zilch,, and they say would be a Coal company,,
so far no news,, just the share keeps going up
some one is making milioooonnnns

2010 stocks charts SPIKES

SDL chart and forecast??
a list of stocks, that the chart did developp to new high of the year,
LEG
YTC
SDL
HOG

YTC chart

ACU pick of thhe moment

ACU
trading at 0.003
capital loss 17 millions
a major invested 1 million??
obiously something got to happen
keep me posted

watch list

GCR
as mentionned in previous posting..
we bought on the flag..
looks like is breaking the 2 barrier

The bears are around

This could be the "Game Changer" in 2011 ...

Very few things happen that can be a "game changer" in a macro sense.

However, there is a potential "game changer" that is at the cusp of signaling one of the most important changes in 15 years.

What is it?

It is the current challenge to the 15 year down trend on 30 year Bond yields. Fifteen years is a pretty long time, but that could come to an end if today's 30 Year Bond Yield chart breaks out to the upside.

What would it mean if it does?

It would mean the end of the down trend, higher mortgage rates, and a sign that inflation is on the way.

Such an event would be a "game changer" because it would cause duress in many economic sectors, along with the necessary re-evaluation of future economic forecasts. This could result in a large scale rotation of stock sectors and rising commodity prices in 2011.

(This chart is updated every day in Section 3 of our Advanced subscriber analysis.) *** Feel free to share this page with others by using the "Send this Page to a Friend" link below.

100 years chart ASX

Dowjones forecast 2011

Dow Jones Industrial Average Stock Index Forecast

Dow Jones Industrial Average Stock Index Forecast

Index Values, Close of Month.

Month	Date	Forecast Value	50% Correct +/-	80% Correct +/-
0	Nov 2010	11,192.8	0	0
1	Dec 2010	11,460	475	1,064
2	Jan 2011	11,240	597	1,337
3	Feb 2011	11,590	683	1,529
4	Mar 2011	11,680	751	1,681
5	Apr 2011	11,200	808	1,810
6	May 2011	10,760	858	1,922
7	Jun 2011	10,950	903	2,022
8	Jul 2011	10,240	943	2,113

Updated Tuesday, December 07, 2010

All forecasts are provided AS IS, and FFC disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.

Click Here to get the rest of the story with the Long Range forecasts

Dow Jones Industrial Average Stock Index

Past Trend Present Value & Future Projection

Other Links of Interest:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average Stock Index Historical Data
• Dow Jones Transports Stock Index Forecast
• Dow Jones Utilities Stock Index Forecast
• U.S. S&P 500 Stock Index Forecast
• U.S. DJIA Stock Index Extended Forecast by subscription
• Information On DJ Averages at Dow Jones' Website

A long range forecast for this or similar financial series is available by subscription

Click here for more information or to subscribe now

Current Stock Markets
December 23, 2010 (Close of Day)
Stock Markets	Change
U.S.	- 0.17%
Asia	- 0.42%
Europe	- 0.06%
Latin America	- 0.03%

YTC resources limited

YTC
164 millions shares on issue
market cap about 80 millions
year hi/lo 0.165 - 50 cents
projects
Nyamagee copper/gold
is about 600 kms from Sydney
YTC acquired 90 % of project..
shares placement 6/12/20110 tranche 2
7000000 shares at 25 cents
placement pending to chinese major sharesholder
Yunnan Tin Aust TDK Resources...
looking at the year chart, looks like we are on wave 5
of a completed cycle, yet YTC could move to 75 target
in cycle 3???
purely technical charting theory, must apply fundamentals.
any experts welcome???

SDL Sundance resources

this one seems to keep going... the chart insinuate a top.. wave 6 or 5 this stock is driven by a robbot.. keeping buying a chinese play,, can we compare SDL to FMG,, ??? finance to be announced soon???
cycle 1 wave 5-6 accomplished
need to consolidate to 45 cents to
move ahead to cycle 2

THE BIG QUESTION IS????
SDL compare to FMG
Chinese are driving it???
different market conditions maybe???

SLT play with very astute raiders

select vaccin code SLT
price 005 cents shares and 004 cents for options
excercise 0.002 by 2013

all well look after , with issues at 0.002 with free options..
SLT will change directions most likely, and accordingly will need to have a capital reconstruction..
at present it indicate 1 for 40
needed to have the shares at 20 for a new prospectus??
respectiveley it will have
options exercise at 8 cents
shares at 20 cents
presents options trading at 16 cents without any premium
those guys are playing very safe

stockmarkets signalling TOPS

Sell, Sell, Sell

By Christian A. DeHaemer | Monday, December 20th, 2010

Here it is, the end of another fantastic year.

The NASDAQ is up 26% over the last 52 weeks, the S&P500 is up 24%, and the DJIA is up 20%.

Heck, it's been a great year at Crisis & Opportunity as well. Readers have seen gains of 759% in a small Mongolian oil company, 52% on a cruise ship in a week, and 251% gains on a safety syringe maker.

Lets face it: greed is back. The speculators have returned and the fast money is seeking risk.

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American OPEC

We're about to buck the peak oil trend.

It's all about shale oil these days, and if you play the right stock, you could easily see your investment double in a matter of weeks.

I've found one little-known company that is able to double the amount of oil we get from shale reserves...

Here's how to get your share of these underground profits.

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Froth is back

There is no better example of this froth than the hot Chinese IPO's Youku.com. Called the “Netflix of China,” it returned 161% on the first day.

All sorts of companies are running. New Energy Technologies (NENE.OB) — one of Jeff Siegel's picks — went from 0.31 to $3.29 in a month.

And lastly, one of my garbage stocks, Madcatz (ASE: MCZ), a purveyor of video game accessories, shot up 250% in a few weeks.

That type of momentum chasing doesn't happen in bear markets; in fact it's more indicative of a top.

I've written before that this market is setting up just as it did in 2004. We are three years after a massive market correction. The Fed and Congress are doing everything they can to shoot money into the economy.

We've just had a major stock market rally similar to 2003, and the vast spectrum of negatives from housing to jobs seems to be getting better...

Here is what 2004 looked like:

There's a chart that will give you indigestion on the way to a 10% gain.

Every rally was sold hard, blowing out the longs. Every dip reversed strong destroying the shorts. Double dip was the dominant fear. And every sell-off got run over by easy money from the Fed.

Looking at this chart, there is no easy way to tell when a sell-off is going to happen. But you'll notice that the dips are reversed when there is a MACD crossover below the centerline (0).

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

For those who don't know, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence is one of the simplest and easy-to-understand momentum indicators around.

It was developed by Gerald Appel in the late 70s and should be in every investor's tool box.

The MACD uses two trend-following indicators called moving averages and turns them into a momentum oscillator by subtracting the longer moving average from the shorter moving average.

As a result, you have a trend following momentum indicator that is very useful as a turnaround signal... You buy when the moving averages cross (blue and red lines) below the centerline; you sell the cross above the center line.

It works very well in choppy markets.

And here are three reasons to believe we may need it within the next 90 days...

Overdue for a correction

VIX is sleeping. The BCOE market volatility index is a fear indicator. When investors are bearish, it goes off the charts.

Note the sell-off in 2008, which saw the Vix launch to 90. Right now it is at 16.

This is telling us that the majority of option buyers are bullish — a contrarian indicator...

Price-to-earnings ratios are high

Does this look like a market that is at a bottom?

P/E ratios are at the high-end of their range. Over the past 130 years, when P/E's reach these levels — we have a correction.

Double top on many indexes

Many indexes like the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ are showing double tops. Would you buy that or sell it?

And lastly, I'm having a hard time finding things I want to buy...

That usually means there are fewer stocks worth owning at these levels.

I would suggest you take some profits and sit on some cash. This market will have a 10% correction within the next three months.

You should buy it. I will.

Have a great holiday week,

Christian DeHaemer
Editor, Wealth Daily

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Cash in on the penny stock bull market!

The performance of our speculative stocks index has been so unbelievable the last few months, we decided all our readers need to be aware of this amazing bull run. Even though things have really started cooking... IS IT TO LATE to climb aboard! Below is the email we recently sent that needs your attention...
desk@pennysharefortune.com

TSV Transerv shaping up

the positive
just heard the brr.

Warro 4 & 5 plus siesmic free carried, great news.

Amazon prospect 301 - 736 bcfg and 37 mbol
to spud tomorro.

and the share price is still $0.015c
do you believe it?
i see it but i dont believe it (the share price that is)

please do your own research
the negative

Directors need to earn back a bit of respect ???? 1.Drilled warro-2 without capacity to handle water...All farmers in that area get their water from bores and even some irrigation in Bagdingarra area..Amazon out of blue and to pay for this issueing 250 mil more shares(to mates) and that will cap SP gains until some concrete results ,Alcoa saving grace maybe..suffering long term shareholder.

extract from posters on hotcopper

ACU is a shell in a nut shell

well
insiders bought in at 0.002
1000000 dollars invested...
obviously the beginning of a play..
hard to buy at 0.002
they will do something to rev it up for sure
it is a punt
but i bought at 0.003
where seems to be selling pressure
i shall wait for the play

GLL ** Takeover rumours

to all Galile ECU supporters..
seems time has come for play..
BTU offer for the coal assets.
new listing announced for float of coal assets???
in suspension at present,, maybe
a counter offer by AGL
good luck